NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCLH offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO has the edge over NCLH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NCLH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
NCLH's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NCLH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.7x | $18.06 | — |
| Cheap | 9.9x | $18.49 | +2.4% |
| Forward | 14x | $18.06 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $29.39 | +63% |
| Expensive | 22x | $40.83 | +126% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCLH's PE is in its cheap range at 9.7x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 14x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NCLH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NCLH's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over NCLH on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NCLH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.26 | -32% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.86 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.65 | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.24 | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.92 | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.39 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.48 | +54% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.76 | +117% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.89 | +385% |
NCLH has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
NCLH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.9B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3B | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | +6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +6.2% |
NCLH's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $2.9B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | -4.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | -1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +3.9 points |
NCLH has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over NCLH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NCLH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$105.4M | +$621.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $144.9M | -62% |
| Q1 2026 | -$625.2M | +$220.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $21.5M | -86% |
| Q3 2025 | -$726.5M | -$531M |
| Q2 2025 | $381.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$846M | -254% |
| Q4 2024 | $155.8M | +$544.5M |
NCLH has burned cash in most quarters: −$564M over the past year, against −$1B the year before.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
NCLH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -3.5M shares |
| 1 year | -7.1% | -35.3M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.2M shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +90.4M shares |
| Available history | +113% | +244M shares |
NCLH has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
NCLH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.4x | High |
NCLH's net debt is about 5.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NCLH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.4 | Neutral |
NCLH's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
NCLH PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NCLH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.7x | 18x | 46% below |
| PE % | 15 | 47 | 32 pts below |
NCLH is trading at 9.7x earnings, a 46% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NCLH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.1 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.1 | 5.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.1 | 5.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.6 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.2 | 6.1% below |
NCLH has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
NCLH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $59.1 | $24.6 | -58% |
| 2021 | $24.6 | $22.7 | -7.6% |
| 2022 | $22.7 | $13.0 | -43% |
| 2023 | $13.0 | $20.0 | +54% |
| 2024 | $20.0 | $25.8 | +28% |
| 2025 | $25.8 | $22.8 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.8 | $18.1 | -21% |
NCLH has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.