NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
NCDL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI has the edge over NCDL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
NCDL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NCDL's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NCDL.
SOFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SOFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SOFI.
NCDL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.9x | $6.95 | -41% |
| Fair | 7.5x | $7.58 | -35% |
| Forward | 7.6x | $11.75 | — |
| Expensive | 9x | $9.13 | -22% |
| Current | 12x | $11.75 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCDL's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.6x, in its fair range.
SOFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $15.63 | — |
| Current | 28x | $15.63 | — |
| Cheap | 33x | $18.24 | +17% |
| Fair | 43x | $23.82 | +52% |
| Expensive | 53x | $29.74 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SOFI has the edge over NCDL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NCDL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect NCDL's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
SOFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
SOFI has the edge over NCDL on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NCDL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.56 | +54% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.01 | -49% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.12 | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86 | -18% |
| Q3 2023 | $2.07 | +111% |
| Q2 2023 | $1.69 | +26% |
| Q1 2023 | $0.97 | -51% |
| Q4 2022 | $0.70 | -66% |
NCDL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.01 over the past year, against $2.26 in late 2024.
SOFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | 0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49 | -2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 | +367% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.50 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.39 | +$0.75 |
SOFI has the edge over NCDL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NCDL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | $20.1M | +54% |
| Q3 2022 | $14.2M | +38% |
| Q2 2022 | $16.5M | +120% |
| Q1 2022 | $14.2M | +125% |
| Q4 2021 | $13M | +162% |
| Q3 2021 | $10.3M | +232% |
| Q2 2021 | $7.5M | +175% |
| Q1 2021 | $6.3M | +116% |
NCDL has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 54% for NCDL versus up 44% for SOFI.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 36% | -57 points |
| Q3 2022 | 42% | -66 points |
| Q2 2022 | 9.2% | -94 points |
| Q1 2022 | 69% | -27 points |
| Q4 2021 | 93% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2021 | 108% | -68 points |
| Q2 2021 | 104% | +161 points |
| Q1 2021 | 96% | +167 points |
NCDL's operating margin was 36% last quarter, down 57 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SOFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $961.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $854.9M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $771.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $734.1M | +19% |
SOFI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since mid-2022: $1.4B last quarter, up 44% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +9.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -0.2 points |
SOFI's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
NCDL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.6M | +71% |
| Q2 2026 | $61M | -56% |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.7M | -$4.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $28.6M | +138% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.3M | +$79.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $137.1M | +$306.5M |
| Q1 2025 | -$8.8M | +$88.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $12M | +$146.7M |
NCDL has the edge over SOFI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SOFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.1B | -$1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$4B | -$2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.4B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -$815.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4B | -$149M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | -$1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$31.1M | -104% |
| Q4 2024 | -$242.4M | +$39.9M |
SOFI's free cash flow was −$10.5B over the past year, against −$3.2B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
NCDL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -16.6K shares |
| 3 years | +122% | +27.2M shares |
| 5 years | +1148% | +45.4M shares |
NCDL has the edge over SOFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $2.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $26M |
| Q1 2025 | $37.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $22.5M |
NCDL hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
SOFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +5.2% | +66.8M shares |
| 3 years | +43% | +407M shares |
| 5 years | +272% | +993M shares |
SOFI has 1.4B diluted shares, up 5.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
NCDL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 26.9x | High |
| Q3 2022 | 21.1x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 15.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 10.2x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 10.0x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 11.5x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 10.8x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 12.8x | High |
NCDL's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 10 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NCDL.
SOFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
SOFI has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
NCDL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 47.6 | Neutral |
NCDL's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 48 (neutral).
SOFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
SOFI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
NCDL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NCDL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 11% below |
| PE % | 99 | 36 | 63 pts above |
NCDL has the edge over SOFI on valuation relative to its sector.
SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SOFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 114% above |
| PE % | 2 | 61 | 59 pts below |
SOFI is trading at 28x earnings, a 114% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NCDL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.2 | 5.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $11.9 | 1.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.9 | 8.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.4 | 19% below |
NCDL has stronger trend alignment. NCDL is above 1 of 4 weekly averages versus SOFI above 1 of 5.
SOFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.7 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.0 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.5 | 16% above |
SOFI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 16% above its 200-week average.
NCDL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $17.9 | $17.1 | -4.4% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $13.8 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.8 | $11.8 | -15% |
NCDL has the edge over SOFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SOFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.4 | $12.4 | +19% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $15.1 | $4.61 | -69% |
| 2023 | $4.61 | $9.95 | +116% |
| 2024 | $9.95 | $16.0 | +61% |
| 2025 | $16.0 | $27.1 | +69% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.1 | $15.6 | -42% |
SOFI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +116% in 2023 to −69% in 2022. It's down 42% so far in 2026.