MTSI

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.

80
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation64/ 100
Upside potential86/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

MTSI trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

92
Fundamentals93/ 100
Valuation94/ 100
Upside potential95/ 100
Risk potential9/ 100

NVDA has the edge over MTSI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.

MTSI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong

MTSI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.

NVDA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong

NVDA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.

MTSI PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE43x85x128x170x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE43x85x128x170x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap15x$65.74-73%
Current57x$246—
Fair81x$349+42%
Expensive128x$552+125%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MTSI's PE is in its fair range at 57x.

NVDA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE63x127x190x253x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE63x127x190x253x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward12x$166—
Current21x$166—
Cheap44x$345+108%
Fair65x$511+207%
Expensive93x$734+342%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

NVDA has the edge over MTSI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

MTSI Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for MTSI to show an outlook.

NVDA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Weakening
Broad
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NVDA, but weaker profitability.

MTSI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+90%$467.48
Downside-15%$208.41

Calculated from the latest close: $245.76 on Nov 12.

MTSI trails NVDA on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

NVDA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+189%$480.16
Downside-9%$150.78

Calculated from the latest close: $166.19 on Nov 12.

NVDA has a better modeled risk to reward balance than MTSI, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

MTSI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.04Q1 2024: $0.88Q2 2024: $0.98Q3 2024: $1.04Q1 2025: $-1.43Q2 2025: $-1.21Q3 2025: $-1.00Q4 2025: $-0.73Q1 2026: $2.21Q2 2026: $2.39Q3 2026: $3.19Q4 2026: $4.31
Q4 2023: $1.04Q1 2024: $0.88Q2 2024: $0.98Q3 2024: $1.04Q1 2025: $-1.43Q2 2025: $-1.21Q3 2025: $-1.00Q4 2025: $-0.73Q1 2026: $2.21Q2 2026: $2.39Q3 2026: $3.19Q4 2026: $4.31
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026$4.31+$5.04
Q2 2026$3.19+$4.19
Q1 2026$2.39+$3.60
Q4 2025$2.21+$3.64
Q3 2025-$0.73-170%
Q2 2025-$1.00-202%
Q1 2025-$1.21-238%
Q4 2024-$1.43-238%

MTSI has returned to profit: it earned $4.31 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.

NVDA Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.76Q1 2024: $1.19Q2 2024: $1.71Q3 2024: $2.13Q4 2024: $2.54Q1 2025: $2.94Q2 2025: $3.10Q3 2025: $3.51Q4 2025: $4.03Q1 2026: $4.90Q2 2026: $6.53Q3 2026: $7.91Forward: $13.77
Q4 2023: $0.76Q1 2024: $1.19Q2 2024: $1.71Q3 2024: $2.13Q4 2024: $2.54Q1 2025: $2.94Q2 2025: $3.10Q3 2025: $3.51Q4 2025: $4.03Q1 2026: $4.90Q2 2026: $6.53Q3 2026: $7.91Forward: $13.77
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.77+74%
Q3 2026$7.91+125%
Q2 2026$6.53+111%
Q1 2026$4.90+67%
Q4 2025$4.03+59%
Q3 2025$3.51+65%
Q2 2025$3.10+81%
Q1 2025$2.94+147%
Q4 2024$2.54+234%

NVDA has the edge over MTSI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

MTSI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $157MQ1 2024: $181MQ2 2024: $190MQ3 2024: $201MQ1 2025: $218MQ2 2025: $236MQ3 2025: $252MQ4 2025: $261MQ1 2026: $272MQ2 2026: $289MQ3 2026: $342MQ4 2026: $425M
Q4 2023: $157MQ1 2024: $181MQ2 2024: $190MQ3 2024: $201MQ1 2025: $218MQ2 2025: $236MQ3 2025: $252MQ4 2025: $261MQ1 2026: $272MQ2 2026: $289MQ3 2026: $342MQ4 2026: $425M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$424.8M+63%
Q2 2026$342.2M+36%
Q1 2026$289M+22%
Q4 2025$271.6M+25%
Q3 2025$261.2M+30%
Q2 2025$252.1M+32%
Q1 2025$235.9M+30%
Q4 2024$218.1M+39%

MTSI's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $425M last quarter, up 63% from the same quarter a year ago.

NVDA Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $18.1BQ1 2024: $22.1BQ2 2024: $26BQ3 2024: $30BQ4 2024: $35.1BQ1 2025: $39.3BQ2 2025: $44.1BQ3 2025: $46.7BQ4 2025: $57BQ1 2026: $68.1BQ2 2026: $81.6BQ3 2026: $96.2B
Q4 2023: $18.1BQ1 2024: $22.1BQ2 2024: $26BQ3 2024: $30BQ4 2024: $35.1BQ1 2025: $39.3BQ2 2025: $44.1BQ3 2025: $46.7BQ4 2025: $57BQ1 2026: $68.1BQ2 2026: $81.6BQ3 2026: $96.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$96.2B+106%
Q2 2026$81.6B+85%
Q1 2026$68.1B+73%
Q4 2025$57B+62%
Q3 2025$46.7B+56%
Q2 2025$44.1B+69%
Q1 2025$39.3B+78%
Q4 2024$35.1B+94%

NVDA has the edge over MTSI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

MTSI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $28MQ1 2024: $13MQ2 2024: $42MQ3 2024: $57MQ1 2025: $61MQ2 2025: $31MQ3 2025: $52MQ4 2025: $49MQ1 2026: $30MQ2 2026: $65MQ3 2026: $59MQ4 2026: $138M
Q4 2023: $28MQ1 2024: $13MQ2 2024: $42MQ3 2024: $57MQ1 2025: $61MQ2 2025: $31MQ3 2025: $52MQ4 2025: $49MQ1 2026: $30MQ2 2026: $65MQ3 2026: $59MQ4 2026: $138M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$138M+179%
Q2 2026$59.2M+15%
Q1 2026$65.5M+114%
Q4 2025$30M-51%
Q3 2025$49.4M-14%
Q2 2025$51.6M+24%
Q1 2025$30.5M+134%
Q4 2024$61.3M+116%

MTSI's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $293M over the past year, up 52% from the year before.

NVDA Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: $11.2BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $13.5BQ4 2024: $16.8BQ1 2025: $15.6BQ2 2025: $26.2BQ3 2025: $13.5BQ4 2025: $22.1BQ1 2026: $34.9BQ2 2026: $48.6BQ3 2026: $21.4B
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: $11.2BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $13.5BQ4 2024: $16.8BQ1 2025: $15.6BQ2 2025: $26.2BQ3 2025: $13.5BQ4 2025: $22.1BQ1 2026: $34.9BQ2 2026: $48.6BQ3 2026: $21.4B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$21.4B+59%
Q2 2026$48.6B+86%
Q1 2026$34.9B+124%
Q4 2025$22.1B+32%
Q3 2025$13.5B-0.3%
Q2 2025$26.2B+75%
Q1 2025$15.6B+38%
Q3 2024$13.5B+113%

NVDA's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for six years: $127B over the past year, up 76% from the year before.

MTSI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 72MQ1 2024: 73MQ2 2024: 74MQ3 2024: 74MQ1 2025: 73MQ2 2025: 76MQ3 2025: 76MQ4 2025: 74MQ1 2026: 77MQ2 2026: 78MQ3 2026: 78MQ4 2026: 78M
Q4 2023: 72MQ1 2024: 73MQ2 2024: 74MQ3 2024: 74MQ1 2025: 73MQ2 2025: 76MQ3 2025: 76MQ4 2025: 74MQ1 2026: 77MQ2 2026: 78MQ3 2026: 78MQ4 2026: 78M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.9%-674K shares
1 year+5.1%+3.7M shares
3 years+8.7%+6.2M shares
5 years+10%+7.3M shares
Available history+17%+11.5M shares

MTSI has 78M diluted shares, up 5.1% from a year ago.

NVDA Total Shares

Q4 2023: 24.9BQ1 2024: 24.9BQ2 2024: 24.9BQ3 2024: 24.8BQ4 2024: 24.8BQ1 2025: 24.8BQ2 2025: 24.6BQ3 2025: 24.5BQ4 2025: 24.5BQ1 2026: 24.5BQ2 2026: 24.4BQ3 2026: 24.3B
Q4 2023: 24.9BQ1 2024: 24.9BQ2 2024: 24.9BQ3 2024: 24.8BQ4 2024: 24.8BQ1 2025: 24.8BQ2 2025: 24.6BQ3 2025: 24.5BQ4 2025: 24.5BQ1 2026: 24.5BQ2 2026: 24.4BQ3 2026: 24.3B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.4%-106M shares
1 year-1%-247M shares
3 years-2.8%-705M shares
5 years-4.1%-1B shares
Available history-1.8%-435M shares

NVDA has the edge over MTSI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

MTSI Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.4xQ1 2024: 3.3xQ2 2024: 3.1xQ3 2024: 2.5xQ1 2025: 2.1xQ2 2025: 2.6xQ3 2025: 2.3xQ4 2025: 2.2xQ1 2026: 1.9xQ2 2026: 1.1xQ3 2026: 1.0xQ4 2026: 0.6x
Q4 2023: 2.4xQ1 2024: 3.3xQ2 2024: 3.1xQ3 2024: 2.5xQ1 2025: 2.1xQ2 2025: 2.6xQ3 2025: 2.3xQ4 2025: 2.2xQ1 2026: 1.9xQ2 2026: 1.1xQ3 2026: 1.0xQ4 2026: 0.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.6xVery low
Q2 20261.0xVery low
Q1 20261.1xHealthy
Q4 20251.9xHealthy
Q3 20252.2xModerate
Q2 20252.3xModerate
Q1 20252.6xModerate
Q4 20242.1xModerate

MTSI's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.

NVDA Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 0.2xQ1 2024: 0.1xQ2 2024: 0.0xQ3 2024: -0.0xQ4 2024: -0.0xQ1 2025: -0.0xQ2 2025: -0.1xQ3 2025: -0.0xQ4 2025: -0.0xQ1 2026: -0.0xQ2 2026: -0.0xQ3 2026: 0.1x
Q4 2023: 0.2xQ1 2024: 0.1xQ2 2024: 0.0xQ3 2024: -0.0xQ4 2024: -0.0xQ1 2025: -0.0xQ2 2025: -0.1xQ3 2025: -0.0xQ4 2025: -0.0xQ1 2026: -0.0xQ2 2026: -0.0xQ3 2026: 0.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.1xVery low
Q2 2026-0.0xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.0xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.0xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.0xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.1xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.0xVery low
Q4 2024-0.0xNet Cash

NVDA has the edge over MTSI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

MTSI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.1Neutral
Stochastic19.4Oversold

MTSI's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

NVDA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI33.4Neutral
Stochastic18.1Oversold

NVDA's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).

MTSI PE vs Technology Sector

MetricMTSISector medianRelative
PE57x28x105% above
PE %42357 pts above

MTSI is trading at 57x earnings, a 105% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

NVDA PE vs Technology Sector

MetricNVDASector medianRelative
PE21x28x25% below
PE %03535 pts below

NVDA has the edge over MTSI on valuation relative to its sector.

MTSI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$265.97.6% below
20 week MA$276.111% below
50 week MA$268.08.3% below
100 week MA$198.424% above
200 week MA$143.272% above

MTSI has the edge over NVDA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

NVDA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$208.920% below
20 week MA$212.022% below
50 week MA$199.917% below
100 week MA$175.15.1% below
200 week MA$123.634% above

NVDA has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 34% above its 200-week average.

MTSI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$27.4$54.6+99%
2021$54.6$77.5+42%
2022$77.5$63.3-18%
2023$63.3$93.0+47%
2024$93.0$133.5+44%
2025$133.5$175.0+31%
2026 YTD$175.0$245.8+40%

MTSI has the edge over NVDA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

NVDA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$5.92$13.0+119%
2021$13.0$29.6+128%
2022$29.6$15.2-49%
2023$15.2$49.5+226%
2024$49.5$137.0+177%
2025$137.0$190.5+39%
2026 YTD$190.5$166.2-13%

NVDA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +226% in 2023 to −49% in 2022. It's down 13% so far in 2026.

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