MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over TUYA overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
TUYA
Tuya Inc.
TUYA offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TUYA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
TUYA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
TUYA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 12x | $1.61 | — |
| Cheap | 18x | $2.46 | +53% |
| Fair | 28x | $3.86 | +140% |
| Expensive | 74x | $10.36 | +543% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TUYA has the edge over MSFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
TUYA Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for TUYA to show an outlook.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
TUYA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.14 | +180% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.10 | +233% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.09 | +800% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.08 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.05 | +$0.08 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.03 | +$0.11 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.01 | +$0.12 |
| Q3 2024 | -$0.03 | +$0.10 |
TUYA's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $0.14 over the past year, up 180% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over TUYA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over TUYA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TUYA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $173.8M | +117% |
| Q1 2026 | $81.1M | +8.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $84.9M | +3.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $82.6M | +1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $80.1M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $74.7M | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $82.1M | +27% |
| Q3 2024 | $81.6M | +34% |
TUYA's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $174M last quarter, up 117% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 9.7% | +8.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.2% | +7.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.4% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7% | +22 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4% | +16 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.9% | +25 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.6% | +32 points |
| Q3 2024 | -21% | +9.3 points |
TUYA's operating margin was 9.7% last quarter, up 8.3 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
TUYA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.2M | +$6.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $6.4M | +$6.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $16.4M | +$16.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $30M | +$30M |
| Q2 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | -100% |
| Q3 2024 | $0 | -100% |
TUYA has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over TUYA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
TUYA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +1% | +5.8M shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +61.4M shares |
| 5 years | +9.9% | +55.4M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +60.6M shares |
TUYA has 616M diluted shares, up 1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $24,000 |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
TUYA has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TUYA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -9.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -13.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -13.6x | Net Cash |
TUYA has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
TUYA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.0 | Oversold |
TUYA's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
TUYA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | TUYA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 28x | 58% below |
| PE % | 1 | 41 | 40 pts below |
TUYA has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over TUYA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TUYA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1.65 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $1.73 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $2.03 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $2.27 | 29% below |
| 200 week MA | $2.04 | 21% below |
TUYA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 21% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over TUYA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TUYA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $25.1 | $6.40 | -75% |
| 2022 | $6.40 | $1.79 | -72% |
| 2023 | $1.79 | $2.30 | +28% |
| 2024 | $2.30 | $1.78 | -23% |
| 2025 | $1.78 | $2.21 | +24% |
| 2026 YTD | $2.21 | $1.61 | -27% |
TUYA has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 27% so far in 2026.