MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over TTD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
TTD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TTD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
TTD's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over TTD in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TTD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 22x | $15.47 | — |
| Forward | 43x | $15.47 | — |
| Cheap | 59x | $40.54 | +162% |
| Fair | 171x | $118 | +661% |
| Expensive | 276x | $190 | +1130% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TTD's PE is in its cheap range at 22x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 43x next year's earnings.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
MSFT has the edge over TTD on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
TTD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect TTD's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
TTD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.36 | -47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.69 | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.84 | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.88 | +7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.90 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.87 | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.83 | +66% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.82 | +105% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.78 | +117% |
TTD earned $0.69 per share over the past year, down 21% from the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over TTD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over TTD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TTD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $736M | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $715.1M | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $688.9M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $846.8M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $739.4M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $694M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $616M | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $741M | +22% |
TTD's revenue is growing: $736M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | -9.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | +4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.8% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +2.5 points |
TTD's operating margin was 13% last quarter, down 9.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
TTD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $157.5M | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $140.4M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $279.1M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $285.3M | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $158.4M | -30% |
| Q2 2025 | $119.8M | +103% |
| Q1 2025 | $232.3M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $179.2M | +172% |
TTD has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
TTD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +249K shares |
| 1 year | -4.6% | -22.8M shares |
| 3 years | -6.3% | -31.7M shares |
| 5 years | -5.8% | -28.7M shares |
| Available history | -1.6% | -7.9M shares |
TTD has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $77.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $163.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $422.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $310.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $260.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $386.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $57.4M |
TTD spent $664M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 35% from the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TTD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
TTD has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
TTD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.1 | Neutral |
TTD's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
TTD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | TTD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 28x | 20% below |
| PE % | 7 | 35 | 28 pts below |
TTD has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over TTD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TTD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.8 | 21% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.6 | 5.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.1 | 30% below |
| 100 week MA | $45.8 | 66% below |
| 200 week MA | $64.5 | 76% below |
TTD has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 76% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over TTD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TTD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.2 | $93.2 | +242% |
| 2021 | $93.2 | $96.1 | +3.1% |
| 2022 | $96.1 | $44.9 | -53% |
| 2023 | $44.9 | $72.0 | +60% |
| 2024 | $72.0 | $121.4 | +69% |
| 2025 | $121.4 | $38.3 | -68% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.3 | $15.5 | -60% |
TTD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +242% in 2020 to −68% in 2025. It's down 60% so far in 2026.