MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over STUB overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
STUB
StubHub Holdings, Inc.
STUB's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
STUB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
STUB's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability is under pressure.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
STUB PE Valuation
STUB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
STUB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
STUB has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 36% for MSFT versus STUB down 6,280%.
STUB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.35 | — |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.18 | -$6.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.33 | -$6.24 |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.43 | -751% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.25 | -127% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.10 | -110% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.09 | -109% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.68 | +$0.72 |
| Q2 2024 | $0.92 | +$1.32 |
STUB lost $6.18 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over STUB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over STUB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
STUB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $502M | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $573.1M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $446M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $449.2M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $468.1M | +7.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $430.3M | -2.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $397.6M | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $533.4M | +60% |
STUB's revenue is growing: $502M last quarter, up 7.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.4% | +301 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.2% | -24 points |
| Q3 2025 | -292% | -304 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.8% | +7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -7.5 points |
STUB's operating margin was 8.4% last quarter, up 301 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT has the edge over STUB in the latest year-over-year cash flow comparison.
STUB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $321.4M | +3208% |
| Q1 2026 | $298.2M | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.9M | +$10.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $9.7M | -93% |
| Q1 2025 | $151.1M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2024 | $136.4M | +$168.6M |
| Q1 2024 | $258.7M | +40% |
STUB usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$399M, but it generated $232M over the past year.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over STUB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
STUB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.7% | +10M shares |
| 1 year | +5.6% | +20.5M shares |
| 3 years | +5.6% | +20.5M shares |
STUB has 388M diluted shares, up 5.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $5,000 |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
STUB has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over STUB on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
STUB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 8.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.8x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 9.3x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 4.7x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 5.3x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 6.2x | High |
STUB's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 9.3 years a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
STUB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.8 | Oversold |
STUB's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
STUB PE vs Technology Sector
STUB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has stronger trend alignment. MSFT is above 4 of 5 weekly averages versus STUB above 0 of 3.
STUB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.71 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.22 | 30% below |
| 50 week MA | $9.05 | 44% below |
STUB is in a downtrend: it's below all three of its weekly moving averages, and 44% below its 50-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over STUB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
STUB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $18.5 | $13.3 | -28% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $5.05 | -62% |
STUB has finished every year since 2025 lower, and it's down 62% so far in 2026.