MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over SMTC overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
SMTC
Semtech Corporation
SMTC offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SMTC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SMTC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over SMTC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SMTC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $119 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $34.23 | -71% |
| Fair | 65x | $96.99 | -19% |
| Current | 80x | $119 | — |
| Expensive | 104x | $155 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SMTC's PE is in its fair range at 80x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
SMTC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
SMTC has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over SMTC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SMTC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.04 | +306% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.49 | +140% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.41 | +$1.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.46 | +$1.80 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.69 | +$13.76 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.62 | +$14.19 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.68 | +$15.25 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.26 | +$14.77 |
| Q4 2024 | -$13.07 | -$5.24 |
SMTC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.49 over the past year, against $2.46 in mid-2022.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over SMTC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SMTC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $341.9M | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $291M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $274.4M | +9.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $267M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $257.6M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $251.1M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $251M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $236.8M | +18% |
SMTC has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +23 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.9% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -6.7% | -15 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -6.3% | -9.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +13 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.5% | +330 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.5% | +14 points |
SMTC's operating margin was 16% last quarter, up 23 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
SMTC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $61.4M | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $28M | +7% |
| Q1 2026 | $59.1M | +91% |
| Q4 2025 | $44.6M | +53% |
| Q3 2025 | $41.5M | +$49.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $26.2M | +$27.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $30.9M | +153% |
| Q4 2024 | $29.1M | +$41.5M |
SMTC has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over SMTC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
SMTC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.9% | +2.8M shares |
| 1 year | +16% | +14.1M shares |
| 3 years | +58% | +36.8M shares |
| 5 years | +54% | +35.3M shares |
| Available history | +50% | +33.5M shares |
SMTC has 101M diluted shares, up 16% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $50M |
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
SMTC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2020 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2020 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2020 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2019 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
SMTC has more cash than debt.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
SMTC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.9 | Neutral |
SMTC's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over SMTC on valuation relative to its sector.
SMTC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SMTC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 80x | 28x | 188% above |
| PE % | 65 | 35 | 30 pts above |
SMTC is trading at 80x earnings, a 188% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over SMTC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SMTC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $147.9 | 19% below |
| 20 week MA | $142.9 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $118.0 | 1.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $84.7 | 41% above |
| 200 week MA | $57.2 | 109% above |
SMTC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 109% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
SMTC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $52.1 | $71.7 | +38% |
| 2021 | $71.7 | $86.9 | +21% |
| 2022 | $86.9 | $27.5 | -68% |
| 2023 | $27.5 | $21.9 | -20% |
| 2024 | $21.9 | $63.3 | +189% |
| 2025 | $63.3 | $76.1 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $76.1 | $119.4 | +57% |
SMTC has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.