MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over SMSI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
SMSI
Smith Micro Software, Inc.
SMSI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SMSI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
SMSI's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
SMSI PE Valuation
SMSI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
SMSI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
SMSI has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 36% for MSFT versus SMSI down 109%.
SMSI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | -$26.40 | -$9.20 |
| Q2 2024 | -$26.90 | -$8.90 |
| Q1 2024 | -$27.20 | -$6.80 |
| Q4 2023 | -$15.20 | +$6.00 |
| Q3 2023 | -$17.20 | +$2.00 |
| Q2 2023 | -$18.00 | +$10.80 |
| Q1 2023 | -$20.40 | +$6.40 |
| Q4 2022 | -$21.20 | +$3.20 |
SMSI is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.32 per share over the past year, against $28.80 at its worst in mid-2022.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over SMSI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over SMSI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SMSI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.3M | -1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.2M | -8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $4M | -20% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.3M | -6.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.4M | -14% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6M | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $5M | -42% |
SMSI's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $5M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -29% | +74 points |
| Q2 2026 | -55% | +284 points |
| Q1 2026 | -80% | +33 points |
| Q4 2025 | -110% | -20 points |
| Q3 2025 | -103% | +37 points |
| Q2 2025 | -338% | -203 points |
| Q1 2025 | -113% | +430 points |
| Q4 2024 | -90% | -23 points |
SMSI's operating margin was −29% last quarter, up 74 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT has the edge over SMSI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SMSI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$192K | +$2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$943K | +$1.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.8M | -$3.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.2M | +$2.7M |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.2M | +$1.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.3M | +$1.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$606K | +$743K |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.9M | -$3.9M |
SMSI has burned cash in most quarters: −$7M over the past year, against −$10M the year before.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over SMSI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
SMSI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.2% | +376K shares |
| 1 year | +44% | +1.7M shares |
| 3 years | +263% | +4M shares |
| 5 years | +415% | +4.5M shares |
| Available history | +435% | +4.5M shares |
SMSI has 6M diluted shares, up 44% from a year ago.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
SMSI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2021 | -23.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2020 | -3.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2020 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2020 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2020 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2019 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
SMSI has more cash than debt.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
SMSI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 10.8 | Oversold |
SMSI's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 11 (oversold).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
SMSI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SMSI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
SMSI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over SMSI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SMSI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.45 | 2% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.63 | 8.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.04 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $3.81 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $18.6 | 87% below |
SMSI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 87% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over SMSI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SMSI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $154.8 | $213.6 | +38% |
| 2021 | $213.6 | $201.6 | -5.6% |
| 2022 | $201.6 | $82.4 | -59% |
| 2023 | $82.4 | $33.1 | -60% |
| 2024 | $33.1 | $7.25 | -78% |
| 2025 | $7.25 | $2.85 | -61% |
| 2026 YTD | $2.85 | $2.40 | -16% |
SMSI has finished five years in a row lower, and it's down 16% so far in 2026.