MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over PUBM overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
PUBM
PubMatic, Inc.
PUBM's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PUBM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
PUBM's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
PUBM PE Valuation
PUBM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 99x next year's earnings.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
PUBM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
PUBM has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over PUBM on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
PUBM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.19 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.05 | +$0.14 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.30 | -$0.23 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.38 | -575% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.31 | -235% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.19 | -246% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.07 | -139% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.08 | +167% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.23 | +$0.26 |
PUBM lost $0.05 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over PUBM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over PUBM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PUBM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.6M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $78.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $62.6M | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $80M | -6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $68M | -5.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $71.1M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $63.8M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $85.5M | +1.1% |
PUBM's revenue is growing: $80M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +23 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -24% | -5.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -6.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | -12% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | -7.7% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -19% | -10 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | -6.8 points |
PUBM's operating margin was 11% last quarter, up 23 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
PUBM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.9M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.3M | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.3M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.3M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $27.7M | +274% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.6M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.7M | -42% |
PUBM has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over PUBM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
PUBM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.3% | +4.3M shares |
| 1 year | +9.8% | +4.5M shares |
| 3 years | -9.9% | -5.6M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -6.1M shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.8M shares |
PUBM has 50M diluted shares, up 9.8% from a year ago, despite $47M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15M |
| Q2 2026 | $22M |
| Q1 2026 | $8.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $4M |
| Q2 2025 | $38.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $5M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.9M |
PUBM spent $47M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 19% from the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
PUBM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | -83.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -13.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
PUBM has more cash than debt.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
PUBM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.0 | Neutral |
PUBM's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
PUBM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PUBM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
PUBM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
PUBM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $17.8 | 7% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.3 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $12.0 | 59% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.4 | 66% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.1 | 35% above |
PUBM has the edge over MSFT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
PUBM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $25.1 | $30.4 | +22% |
| 2021 | $30.4 | $34.8 | +14% |
| 2022 | $34.8 | $12.6 | -64% |
| 2023 | $12.6 | $16.3 | +29% |
| 2024 | $16.3 | $15.1 | -7.4% |
| 2025 | $15.1 | $8.98 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.98 | $19.0 | +112% |
PUBM has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.