MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
PAYC
Paycom Software, Inc.
PAYC has the edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PAYC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
PAYC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over PAYC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PAYC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $249 | — |
| Cheap | 21x | $216 | -13% |
| Current | 24x | $249 | — |
| Fair | 57x | $591 | +138% |
| Expensive | 127x | $1,325 | +433% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAYC's PE is in its cheap range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
PAYC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
PAYC has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over PAYC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PAYC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.94 | +43% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.43 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.40 | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.64 | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.08 | -9.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.06 | -2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.41 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.03 | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.92 | +52% |
PAYC earned $10.43 per share over the past year, up 29% from the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over PAYC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over PAYC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PAYC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $543.8M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $531.2M | +9.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $571.9M | +7.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $544.3M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $493.3M | +9.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $483.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $530.5M | +6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $493.9M | +14% |
PAYC's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $544M last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 36% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 32% | +8.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 37% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 35% | -22 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +5.5 points |
PAYC's operating margin was 36% last quarter, up 13 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
PAYC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $163.8M | +105% |
| Q2 2026 | $190.1M | +213% |
| Q1 2026 | $182.6M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $122.6M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $79.8M | +79% |
| Q2 2025 | $60.8M | -30% |
| Q1 2025 | $144.8M | +43% |
| Q4 2024 | $109M | +41% |
PAYC has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
PAYC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.1% | -1.4M shares |
| 1 year | -21% | -11.9M shares |
| 3 years | -23% | -13.5M shares |
| 5 years | -24% | -13.7M shares |
| Available history | -24% | -13.9M shares |
PAYC has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $335.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $106.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $42M |
| Q4 2023 | $211.6M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
PAYC spent $1.5B buying back its own shares over the past year.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over PAYC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PAYC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
PAYC's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
PAYC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
PAYC's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
PAYC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PAYC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 28x | 14% below |
| PE % | 20 | 35 | 15 pts below |
PAYC has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
PAYC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $243.8 | 2.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $213.2 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $167.3 | 49% above |
| 100 week MA | $191.7 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $209.8 | 19% above |
PAYC has the edge over MSFT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
PAYC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $268.9 | $462.1 | +72% |
| 2021 | $462.1 | $423.8 | -8.3% |
| 2022 | $423.8 | $305.2 | -28% |
| 2023 | $305.2 | $206.7 | -32% |
| 2024 | $206.7 | $206.7 | 0% |
| 2025 | $206.7 | $160.4 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $160.4 | $248.8 | +55% |
PAYC has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.