MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
PAY
Paymentus Holdings, Inc.
PAY has a slight edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PAY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
PAY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over PAY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PAY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 33x | $33.75 | — |
| Current | 46x | $33.75 | — |
| Cheap | 60x | $44.04 | +30% |
| Fair | 103x | $75.05 | +122% |
| Expensive | 409x | $299 | +785% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAY's PE is in its cheap range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 33x next year's earnings.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
PAY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
PAY has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
PAY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.04 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.73 | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66 | +50% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.57 | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.52 | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.47 | +52% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.44 | +76% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.40 | +74% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.35 | +94% |
PAY has the edge over MSFT on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over PAY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PAY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $372.2M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $360.7M | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | $358.4M | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $330.5M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $310.7M | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $280.1M | +42% |
| Q1 2025 | $275.2M | +49% |
| Q4 2024 | $257.9M | +56% |
PAY has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9% | +3.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.4% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.3% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.4% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.7% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.5% | 0 points |
PAY's operating margin was 9% last quarter, up 2.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2018.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
PAY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $43.4M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.7M | +55% |
| Q1 2026 | $30.4M | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $45M | +62% |
| Q3 2025 | $35M | +425% |
| Q2 2025 | $31.4M | +76% |
| Q1 2025 | $50.4M | +365% |
| Q4 2024 | $27.8M | +14% |
PAY has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over PAY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
PAY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +1.3M shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +3.7% | +4.7M shares |
| 5 years | +4.7% | +5.9M shares |
| Available history | +18% | +19.8M shares |
PAY has 130M diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q2 2018 | — |
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
PAY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
PAY has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
PAY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.5 | Neutral |
PAY's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 28 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over PAY on valuation relative to its sector.
PAY PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PAY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 28x | 66% above |
| PE % | 4 | 43 | 39 pts below |
PAY is trading at 46x earnings, a 66% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
PAY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $32.2 | 4.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.5 | 0.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $29.2 | 16% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.7 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $23.8 | 42% above |
PAY has the edge over MSFT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over PAY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PAY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $30.5 | $31.6 | +3.4% |
| 2022 | $31.6 | $7.16 | -77% |
| 2023 | $7.16 | $17.9 | +150% |
| 2024 | $17.9 | $33.0 | +85% |
| 2025 | $33.0 | $31.5 | -4.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $31.5 | $33.8 | +7.2% |
PAY's yearly returns have swung widely, from +150% in 2023 to −77% in 2022. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.