MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over OLED overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
OLED
Universal Display Corporation
OLED offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
OLED Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
OLED's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
OLED PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $89.89 | — |
| Forward | 20x | $89.89 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $130 | +45% |
| Fair | 36x | $177 | +96% |
| Expensive | 64x | $316 | +251% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OLED has the edge over MSFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
MSFT has the edge over OLED on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
OLED Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect OLED's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over OLED on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
OLED Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.50 | -8.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.94 | +6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.14 | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.49 | -6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.08 | +9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.64 | -6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.12 | +9.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.81 | +4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.65 | +9.7% |
OLED earned $4.94 per share over the past year, up 6.5% from the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over OLED on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over OLED on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
OLED Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $160.4M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $152.2M | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $142.2M | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $172.9M | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $139.6M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $171.8M | +8.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $166.3M | +0.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $162.3M | +2.5% |
OLED's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $160M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 33% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 35% | -4.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +6.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +4.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 42% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 32% | -8.6 points |
OLED's operating margin was 33% last quarter, up 2.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
OLED Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $95.9M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.3M | -46% |
| Q1 2026 | $100.3M | +473% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.1M | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $84.3M | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.5M | -35% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.5M | -73% |
| Q4 2024 | $22M | -25% |
OLED generated $232M in free cash flow over the past year, up 44% from the year before.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
OLED Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -895K shares |
| 1 year | -4% | -1.9M shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -1.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.3% | -1.6M shares |
| Available history | -2.6% | -1.2M shares |
OLED has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $77.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $48.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $67.1M |
| Q4 2019 | — |
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
OLED Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
OLED has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
OLED Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.4 | Neutral |
OLED's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
OLED PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | OLED | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 35% below |
| PE % | 3 | 35 | 32 pts below |
OLED has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over OLED on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
OLED Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $82.5 | 9% above |
| 20 week MA | $82.6 | 8.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $95.4 | 5.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $119.2 | 25% below |
| 200 week MA | $143.2 | 37% below |
OLED has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 37% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over OLED on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
OLED Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $212.7 | $233.2 | +9.6% |
| 2021 | $233.2 | $159.4 | -32% |
| 2022 | $159.4 | $106.7 | -33% |
| 2023 | $106.7 | $191.3 | +79% |
| 2024 | $191.3 | $149.7 | -22% |
| 2025 | $149.7 | $119.6 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $119.6 | $89.9 | -25% |
OLED has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 25% so far in 2026.