MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI has a slight edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NXPI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
NXPI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over NXPI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NXPI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $267 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $237 | -11% |
| Current | 21x | $267 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $302 | +13% |
| Expensive | 59x | $745 | +179% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NXPI's PE is in its fair range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
NXPI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
NXPI has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NXPI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NXPI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $17.59 | +38% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.73 | +58% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.73 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.46 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.95 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.08 | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.39 | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.18 | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.73 | -9.1% |
NXPI earned $12.73 per share over the past year, up 58% from the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NXPI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over NXPI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NXPI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.8B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +7.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.2B | -2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | -6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.8B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | -9.1% |
NXPI's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $3.8B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | +4.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | +7.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 47% | +22 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | -5.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | -4.8 points |
NXPI's operating margin was 32% last quarter, up 4.3 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
NXPI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +137% |
| Q2 2026 | $791M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $714M | +68% |
| Q4 2025 | $793M | +204% |
| Q3 2025 | $508M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $696M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $426M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $261M | -73% |
NXPI has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over NXPI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
NXPI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -190K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -479K shares |
| 3 years | -2.8% | -7.3M shares |
| 5 years | -6.5% | -17.5M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -32.1M shares |
NXPI has 254M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $103M |
| Q2 2026 | $104M |
| Q1 2026 | $102M |
| Q4 2025 | $338M |
| Q3 2025 | $54M |
| Q2 2025 | $204M |
| Q1 2025 | $303M |
| Q4 2024 | $455M |
NXPI spent $647M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 36% from the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over NXPI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NXPI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
NXPI's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
NXPI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.1 | Neutral |
NXPI's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 72 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
NXPI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NXPI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 36 | 35 | 1 pt above |
NXPI has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
NXPI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $243.6 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $244.8 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $244.6 | 9.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $227.2 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $222.4 | 20% above |
NXPI has the edge over MSFT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
NXPI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $128.2 | $157.3 | +23% |
| 2021 | $157.3 | $227.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $227.4 | $157.7 | -31% |
| 2023 | $157.7 | $229.7 | +46% |
| 2024 | $229.7 | $213.8 | -6.9% |
| 2025 | $213.8 | $222.9 | +4.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $222.9 | $267.3 | +20% |
NXPI has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.