MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over NIQ overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
NIQ
NIQ Global Intelligence Plc
NIQ's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NIQ Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
NIQ's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
NIQ PE Valuation
NIQ has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
NIQ Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIQ has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NIQ in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
NIQ Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.26 | — |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.75 | -$0.68 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.97 | -$1.22 |
NIQ lost $0.40 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NIQ on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over NIQ on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIQ Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +5.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | -4.8% |
NIQ's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $1.1B last quarter, up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.5% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -6.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -3.3% | -6.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8% | +6.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.2% | +5.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +1.3 points |
NIQ's operating margin was 9.5% last quarter, up 13 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
NIQ Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $247M | -6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | -$66.8M | +$105M |
| Q4 2025 | $173.2M | +220% |
| Q3 2025 | $264.8M | +369% |
| Q1 2025 | -$171.8M | -$17.2M |
NIQ has the edge over MSFT in the latest year-over-year cash flow comparison.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over NIQ on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
NIQ Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +1.3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.1% | +14.4M shares |
| 3 years | +0.5% | +1.4M shares |
NIQ has 296M diluted shares, up 5.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over NIQ on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NIQ Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 11.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 11.1x | High |
NIQ's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.3 years a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
NIQ Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 88.9 | Overbought |
NIQ's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
NIQ PE vs Technology Sector
NIQ has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
NIQ has stronger trend alignment. MSFT is above 4 of 5 weekly averages versus NIQ above 3 of 3.
NIQ Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.8 | 2.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.3 | 18% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.9 | 39% above |
NIQ is in an uptrend: it's above all three of its weekly moving averages, and 39% above its 50-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
NIQ Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $19.7 | $16.4 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.4 | $19.2 | +17% |
NIQ has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.