MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over NCNO overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
NCNO
nCino, Inc.
NCNO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NCNO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
NCNO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
NCNO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $22.36 | — |
| Cheap | 72x | $21.56 | -3.6% |
| Current | 75x | $22.36 | — |
| Fair | 133x | $40.02 | +79% |
| Expensive | 333x | $99.88 | +347% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCNO has the edge over MSFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
NCNO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NCNO has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NCNO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NCNO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.51 | +405% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.30 | +$0.58 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.12 | +$0.37 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.38 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.17 | $0.00 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.28 | -$0.01 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.25 | +$0.06 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.33 | +$0.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.17 | +$0.41 |
NCNO has returned to profit: it earned $0.30 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NCNO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over NCNO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NCNO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $161M | +8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $159.4M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $149.7M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $152.2M | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $148.8M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $144.1M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $138.8M | +14% |
NCNO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $161M last quarter, up 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +14 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | +5.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.7% | +8.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | -6.3% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.1% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6% | +10 points |
NCNO's operating margin was 8.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
NCNO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34M | +170% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.8M | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.5M | +$22.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9M | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.6M | +176% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.6M | -2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | -$10.4M | -234% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.1M | -2.9% |
NCNO has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
NCNO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.7% | -4.1M shares |
| 1 year | -8.6% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -6.3% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +9.7M shares |
| Available history | +18% | +15.7M shares |
NCNO has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $110.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $25M |
| Q4 2025 | $39.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $20M |
| Q2 2025 | $40.6M |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
NCNO spent $240M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over NCNO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NCNO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
NCNO's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.5 years a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
NCNO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.0 | Neutral |
NCNO's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over NCNO on valuation relative to its sector.
NCNO PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NCNO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 75x | 28x | 168% above |
| PE % | 19 | 37 | 18 pts below |
NCNO is trading at 75x earnings, a 168% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over NCNO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NCNO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.2 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $20.3 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.4 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $23.8 | 6.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $27.2 | 18% below |
NCNO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 18% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over NCNO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NCNO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.0 | $78.7 | +6.3% |
| 2021 | $78.7 | $57.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $57.0 | $25.9 | -55% |
| 2023 | $25.9 | $33.6 | +30% |
| 2024 | $33.6 | $34.4 | +2.4% |
| 2025 | $34.4 | $26.3 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.3 | $22.4 | -15% |
NCNO has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 15% so far in 2026.