MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
MTSI has the edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MTSI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
MTSI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over MTSI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MTSI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $65.74 | -73% |
| Current | 57x | $246 | — |
| Fair | 81x | $349 | +42% |
| Expensive | 128x | $552 | +125% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MTSI's PE is in its fair range at 57x.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
MTSI Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for MTSI to show an outlook.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over MTSI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MTSI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.31 | +$5.04 |
| Q2 2026 | $3.19 | +$4.19 |
| Q1 2026 | $2.39 | +$3.60 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.21 | +$3.64 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.73 | -170% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.00 | -202% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.21 | -238% |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.43 | -238% |
MTSI has returned to profit: it earned $4.31 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over MTSI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MTSI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $424.8M | +63% |
| Q2 2026 | $342.2M | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $289M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $271.6M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $261.2M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $252.1M | +32% |
| Q1 2025 | $235.9M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $218.1M | +39% |
MTSI has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +7.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +4.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8% | +1 points |
MTSI's operating margin was 32% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
MTSI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $138M | +179% |
| Q2 2026 | $59.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $65.5M | +114% |
| Q4 2025 | $30M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | $49.4M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $51.6M | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $30.5M | +134% |
| Q4 2024 | $61.3M | +116% |
MTSI has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over MTSI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
MTSI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -674K shares |
| 1 year | +5.1% | +3.7M shares |
| 3 years | +8.7% | +6.2M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +7.3M shares |
| Available history | +17% | +11.5M shares |
MTSI has 78M diluted shares, up 5.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $47.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $451,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $37.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $342,000 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.4M |
| Q1 2024 | $970,000 |
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over MTSI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MTSI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
MTSI's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
MTSI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.4 | Oversold |
MTSI's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over MTSI on valuation relative to its sector.
MTSI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MTSI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 57x | 28x | 105% above |
| PE % | 42 | 35 | 7 pts above |
MTSI is trading at 57x earnings, a 105% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over MTSI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MTSI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $265.9 | 7.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $276.1 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $268.0 | 8.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $198.4 | 24% above |
| 200 week MA | $143.2 | 72% above |
MTSI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 72% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
MTSI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.4 | $54.6 | +99% |
| 2021 | $54.6 | $77.5 | +42% |
| 2022 | $77.5 | $63.3 | -18% |
| 2023 | $63.3 | $93.0 | +47% |
| 2024 | $93.0 | $133.5 | +44% |
| 2025 | $133.5 | $175.0 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $175.0 | $245.8 | +40% |
MTSI has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.