MSDL
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
MSDL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI has the edge over MSDL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSDL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MSDL's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSDL.
SOFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SOFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SOFI.
MSDL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.5x | $13.83 | — |
| Cheap | 7.6x | $0.38 | -97% |
| Fair | 9x | $0.45 | -97% |
| Expensive | 15x | $0.76 | -94% |
| Current | 277x | $13.83 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSDL's PE is in its expensive range at 277x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.5x, in its cheap range.
SOFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $15.63 | — |
| Current | 28x | $15.63 | — |
| Cheap | 33x | $18.24 | +17% |
| Fair | 43x | $23.82 | +52% |
| Expensive | 53x | $29.74 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SOFI has the edge over MSDL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSDL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MSDL's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
SOFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
SOFI has the edge over MSDL on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
MSDL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.85 | +3610% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.05 | -97% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.69 | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.01 | -54% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.40 | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.65 | -35% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.93 | -35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.18 | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.43 | -22% |
MSDL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.05 over the past year, against $3.11 in late 2023.
SOFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | 0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49 | -2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 | +367% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.50 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.39 | +$0.75 |
SOFI has the edge over MSDL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSDL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | $40.2M | +26% |
| Q3 2022 | $24.3M | -8.5% |
| Q2 2022 | $6.6M | -72% |
| Q1 2022 | $29.1M | +72% |
| Q4 2021 | $31.9M | +179% |
| Q3 2021 | $26.6M | +312% |
| Q2 2021 | $23.3M | +343% |
| Q1 2021 | $16.9M | +1731% |
SOFI has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 26% for MSDL versus up 44% for SOFI.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 51% | -32 points |
| Q3 2022 | 39% | -45 points |
| Q2 2022 | -49% | -135 points |
| Q1 2022 | 76% | -11 points |
| Q4 2021 | 83% | -20 points |
| Q3 2021 | 84% | -34 points |
| Q2 2021 | 85% | -28 points |
| Q1 2021 | 87% | +440 points |
MSDL's operating margin was 51% last quarter, down 32 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SOFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $961.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $854.9M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $771.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $734.1M | +19% |
SOFI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since mid-2022: $1.4B last quarter, up 44% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +9.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -0.2 points |
SOFI's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
MSDL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $128.7M | +230% |
| Q2 2026 | $103.8M | +332% |
| Q1 2026 | $86.3M | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | $53.8M | +$149.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $39M | +$156M |
| Q2 2025 | $24M | +$130.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $34.1M | +$87.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$96.2M | -519% |
MSDL has the edge over SOFI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SOFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.1B | -$1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$4B | -$2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.4B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -$815.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4B | -$149M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | -$1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$31.1M | -104% |
| Q4 2024 | -$242.4M | +$39.9M |
SOFI's free cash flow was −$10.5B over the past year, against −$3.2B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
MSDL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -724K shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -2.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +12.2M shares |
| 5 years | -4.8% | -4.2M shares |
| Available history | +2618% | +80.9M shares |
MSDL has the edge over SOFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $12.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $20.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $9.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $10.1M |
MSDL spent $49M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
SOFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +5.2% | +66.8M shares |
| 3 years | +43% | +407M shares |
| 5 years | +272% | +993M shares |
SOFI has 1.4B diluted shares, up 5.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
MSDL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 29.5x | High |
| Q3 2022 | 26.4x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 20.6x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 14.5x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 14.1x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 14.6x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 12.8x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 13.2x | High |
MSDL's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 14 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSDL.
SOFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
SOFI has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
MSDL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.8 | Neutral |
MSDL's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
SOFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
SOFI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
MSDL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MSDL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 277x | 13x | 2,024% above |
| PE % | 100 | 36 | 64 pts above |
MSDL is trading at 277x earnings, a 2024% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SOFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 114% above |
| PE % | 2 | 61 | 59 pts below |
SOFI has the edge over MSDL on valuation relative to its sector.
MSDL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.6 | 1.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.6 | 4.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.2 | 8.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.1 | 19% below |
MSDL has stronger trend alignment. MSDL is above 1 of 4 weekly averages versus SOFI above 1 of 5.
SOFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.7 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.0 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.5 | 16% above |
SOFI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 16% above its 200-week average.
MSDL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $20.5 | $21.4 | +4.4% |
| 2025 | $21.4 | $17.0 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.0 | $13.8 | -19% |
MSDL has the edge over SOFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SOFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.4 | $12.4 | +19% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $15.1 | $4.61 | -69% |
| 2023 | $4.61 | $9.95 | +116% |
| 2024 | $9.95 | $16.0 | +61% |
| 2025 | $16.0 | $27.1 | +69% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.1 | $15.6 | -42% |
SOFI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +116% in 2023 to −69% in 2022. It's down 42% so far in 2026.