MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over XP overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
XP
XP Inc.
XP offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
XP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
XP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like XP.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
XP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 8.3x | $15.04 | — |
| Cheap | 10x | $18.35 | +22% |
| Fair | 15x | $27.61 | +84% |
| Expensive | 59x | $106 | +606% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
XP has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over XP on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
XP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for XP, with profitability holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over XP on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
XP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.81 | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.76 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.74 | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.68 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.63 | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.55 | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.48 | +16% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.43 | +20% |
XP's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.81 over the past year, up 11% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over XP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
XP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $894.2M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $826.4M | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $906.4M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $822.2M | +5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $784.5M | -6% |
| Q1 2025 | $773.3M | +3.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $850.9M | +16% |
| Q3 2024 | $779.6M | +1.3% |
XP's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $894M last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 33% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 33% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2024 | 32% | +0.8 points |
XP has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
XP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2B | +139% |
| Q1 2026 | $124.3M | +$599.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$437.1M | -164% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | +166% |
| Q2 2025 | $832.5M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$475.2M | +$132.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $679M | -9.3% |
| Q3 2024 | $818M | +$1.1B |
XP has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
XP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -4.8M shares |
| 1 year | -2.8% | -15.3M shares |
| 3 years | -2.1% | -11M shares |
| 5 years | -9% | -51.7M shares |
| Available history | -5.7% | -31.3M shares |
XP has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $147.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $34.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $152.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $23.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $74.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $89.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $18.8M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
XP spent $359M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 96% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS has the edge over XP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
XP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 12.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 12.8x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 11.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 10.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 17.6x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 8.0x | High |
XP's net debt is about 13 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 10 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like XP.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
XP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 5.5 | Oversold |
XP's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
XP PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | XP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.3x | 13x | 36% below |
| PE % | 2 | 63 | 61 pts below |
XP has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over XP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
XP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $22.3 | 33% below |
| 20 week MA | $19.4 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.7 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.6 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $18.8 | 20% below |
XP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 20% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over XP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
XP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $37.7 | $38.5 | +2.1% |
| 2020 | $38.5 | $41.4 | +7.4% |
| 2021 | $41.4 | $29.8 | -28% |
| 2022 | $29.8 | $15.5 | -48% |
| 2023 | $15.5 | $26.1 | +68% |
| 2024 | $26.1 | $12.1 | -54% |
| 2025 | $12.1 | $16.4 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.4 | $15.0 | -8.5% |
XP has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 8.5% so far in 2026.