MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
WTM
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.
WTM has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
WTM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
WTM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like WTM.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
WTM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.8x | $1,792 | -20% |
| Current | 6x | $2,247 | — |
| Fair | 8.2x | $3,092 | +38% |
| Expensive | 24x | $9,021 | +302% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WTM has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
WTM Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for WTM to show an outlook.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
WTM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $375.30 | +593% |
| Q2 2026 | $437.19 | +449% |
| Q1 2026 | $404.36 | +3697% |
| Q4 2025 | $430.14 | +379% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.14 | -79% |
| Q2 2025 | $79.64 | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.65 | -95% |
| Q4 2024 | $89.79 | -55% |
WTM earned $375.30 per share over the past year, about seven times what it earned the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over WTM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over WTM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
WTM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $641.1M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $844.6M | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $517.8M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +348% |
| Q3 2025 | $864.2M | +3% |
| Q2 2025 | $689.2M | +74% |
| Q1 2025 | $577.8M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $358M | -51% |
WTM's revenue is growing: $641M last quarter, down 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.6% | -24 points |
| Q2 2026 | 30% | +4.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -4.9% | -17 points |
| Q4 2025 | 56% | +90 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -7.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 26% | +34 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -23 points |
| Q4 2024 | -34% | -78 points |
WTM's operating margin was −3.6% last quarter, down 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WTM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $356.6M | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | -$55.5M | -131% |
| Q1 2026 | $30.5M | +$70.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $53.9M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $359.3M | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $177.5M | -18% |
| Q1 2025 | -$40.2M | -210% |
| Q4 2024 | $64.1M | +162% |
WTM has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
WTM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.2% | -52.5K shares |
| 1 year | -7.4% | -187K shares |
| 3 years | -6.7% | -168K shares |
| 5 years | -23% | -697K shares |
| Available history | -25% | -786K shares |
WTM has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $190.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $25.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $192.7M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $9.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $200,000 |
WTM spent $410M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WTM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
WTM has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
WTM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.8 | Neutral |
WTM's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
WTM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | WTM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6x | 13x | 54% below |
| PE % | 39 | 63 | 24 pts below |
WTM has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
WTM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2,156.7 | 4.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $2,143.8 | 4.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $2,134.0 | 5.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $1,986.9 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $1,803.2 | 25% above |
WTM has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
WTM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1,098.0 | $985.8 | -10% |
| 2021 | $985.8 | $1,012.4 | +2.7% |
| 2022 | $1,012.4 | $1,394.8 | +38% |
| 2023 | $1,394.8 | $1,505.0 | +7.9% |
| 2024 | $1,505.0 | $1,918.7 | +27% |
| 2025 | $1,918.7 | $2,062.3 | +7.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $2,062.3 | $2,246.5 | +8.9% |
WTM has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.