MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over WAL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
WAL
Western Alliance Bancorporation
WAL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
WAL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
WAL's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like WAL.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over WAL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
WAL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $65.13 | -12% |
| Forward | 7.2x | $74.39 | — |
| Current | 8.2x | $74.39 | — |
| Fair | 9.4x | $84.88 | +14% |
| Expensive | 13x | $118 | +58% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WAL's PE is in its cheap range at 8.2x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.2x next year's earnings.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
WAL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WAL, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over WAL on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
WAL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.33 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.05 | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.88 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.59 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.73 | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.08 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.60 | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.28 | +6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.09 | +8.4% |
WAL's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $9.05 over the past year, up 12% from the year before, and higher year over year for eight quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over WAL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
WAL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $995.7M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $980.9M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $938.2M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $845.9M | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $778M | +6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $838.4M | +23% |
WAL's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 33% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | -9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 36% | +5.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 34% | +2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 31% | 0 points |
WAL has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WAL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $769.9M | +$1.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$356.1M | +$1.6M |
| Q1 2026 | -$507.2M | +$1.1B |
| Q4 2025 | -$69.8M | +$551.9M |
| Q3 2025 | -$597.4M | +$470.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$357.7M | +$388.1M |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.7B | -$1.3B |
| Q4 2024 | -$621.7M | -282% |
WAL has the edge over MS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
WAL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -200K shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -0.6% | -700K shares |
| 5 years | +3.8% | +3.9M shares |
| Available history | +4.5% | +4.7M shares |
WAL has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $93.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $57.5M |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
WAL spent $203M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WAL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.8x | High |
WAL has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
WAL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.1 | Neutral |
WAL's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 30 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
WAL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | WAL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.2x | 13x | 37% below |
| PE % | 26 | 63 | 37 pts below |
WAL has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over WAL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
WAL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $75.6 | 1.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $78.7 | 5.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $80.5 | 7.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $80.3 | 7.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $70.1 | 6.2% above |
WAL has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 6.2% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over WAL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WAL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $57.0 | $59.9 | +5.1% |
| 2021 | $59.9 | $105.7 | +76% |
| 2022 | $105.7 | $58.1 | -45% |
| 2023 | $58.1 | $65.8 | +13% |
| 2024 | $65.8 | $83.7 | +27% |
| 2025 | $83.7 | $86.6 | +3.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $86.6 | $74.4 | -14% |
WAL has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 14% so far in 2026.