MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over WAFD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
WAFD
WaFd, Inc.
WAFD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
WAFD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
WAFD's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like WAFD.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
WAFD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.7x | $27.59 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 8.9x | $29.27 | — |
| Current | 9.1x | $29.27 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $35.52 | +21% |
| Expensive | 14x | $44.57 | +52% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WAFD has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over WAFD on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
WAFD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect WAFD's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
WAFD Earnings Per Share
WAFD and MS do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over WAFD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
WAFD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $205.5M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $197.4M | +9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $191.4M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $188.3M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $186.3M | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $179.8M | +4.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $171.1M | +2.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $188.7M | +6% |
WAFD's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $206M last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 41% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 42% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +7.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | -1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 43% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 40% | +28 points |
| Q4 2024 | 35% | -7.9 points |
| Q3 2024 | 43% | +9.5 points |
WAFD has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WAFD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $63.4M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $68M | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $50M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $45.6M | -49% |
| Q2 2025 | $53.1M | -8.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $66.6M | -60% |
| Q4 2024 | $43M | -58% |
| Q2 2024 | $58.3M | +189% |
WAFD has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
WAFD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2% | -1.5M shares |
| 1 year | -7.3% | -5.9M shares |
| 3 years | +14% | +8.8M shares |
| 5 years | +3% | +2.1M shares |
| Available history | -8% | -6.4M shares |
WAFD has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $319,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $87.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $58M |
| Q3 2025 | $28.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $48.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $21.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $3.4M |
| Q3 2024 | $250,000 |
WAFD spent $174M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 138% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WAFD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
WAFD has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
WAFD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.2 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 12.3 | Oversold |
WAFD's weekly RSI is 29 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
WAFD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | WAFD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.1x | 13x | 30% below |
| PE % | 21 | 63 | 42 pts below |
WAFD has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over WAFD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
WAFD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.8 | 1.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $33.8 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $33.7 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $31.7 | 7.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.0 | 5.5% below |
WAFD is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 5.5% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over WAFD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WAFD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $36.8 | $25.6 | -31% |
| 2021 | $25.6 | $33.0 | +29% |
| 2022 | $33.0 | $34.1 | +3.3% |
| 2023 | $34.1 | $33.0 | -3.2% |
| 2024 | $33.0 | $32.6 | -1.1% |
| 2025 | $32.6 | $33.1 | +1.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $33.1 | $29.3 | -11% |
WAFD has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 11% so far in 2026.