MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 16% and earnings per share grew 29%. At 15x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

VINP

Vinci Compass Investments Ltd.

There isn't enough reported data to score VINP yet.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

VINP Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Stable
N/A
N/A

VINP's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like VINP.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189โ€”
Current15x$189โ€”
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

VINP PE Valuation

VINP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over VINP on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

VINP Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Decline
Stable
Strongly weakening
Limited
High

Analysts expect VINP's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and VINP's risk to reward.

VINP Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $8.81 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and VINP's risk to reward.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 29% for MS versus VINP down 49%.

VINP Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.74Q1 2024: $0.75Q2 2024: $0.55Q3 2024: $0.59Q4 2024: $0.38
Q4 2023: $0.74Q1 2024: $0.75Q2 2024: $0.55Q3 2024: $0.59Q4 2024: $0.38
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q4 2024$0.38-49%
Q3 2024$0.59-18%
Q2 2024$0.55-35%
Q1 2024$0.75+5.6%
Q4 2023$0.74+4.2%
Q3 2023$0.72+2.9%
Q2 2023$0.85+35%
Q1 2023$0.71+9.2%

VINP's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.38 over the past year, against $0.85 in mid-2023.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

VINP Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $29MQ1 2024: $20MQ2 2024: $26MQ3 2024: $22MQ4 2024: $47MQ1 2025: --Q1 2025: $42MQ2 2025: $49MQ3 2025: $64MQ4 2025: $132MQ1 2026: $49MQ2 2026: $50M
Q4 2023: $29MQ1 2024: $20MQ2 2024: $26MQ3 2024: $22MQ4 2024: $47MQ1 2025: --Q1 2025: $42MQ2 2025: $49MQ3 2025: $64MQ4 2025: $132MQ1 2026: $49MQ2 2026: $50M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$50.1M+2.1%
Q1 2026$49.2M+17%
Q4 2025$131.8M+183%
Q3 2025$63.5M+188%
Q2 2025$49M+86%
Q1 2025$42M+115%
Q4 2024$46.6M+60%
Q3 2024$22.1M+4.6%

VINP has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was โˆ’$58.3B over the past year, against โˆ’$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

VINP Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $11MQ1 2024: $21MQ2 2024: $27MQ3 2024: โˆ’$13MQ4 2024: โˆ’$802,091Q1 2025: $1MQ1 2025: --Q2 2025: $10MQ3 2025: $18MQ4 2025: $11MQ1 2026: โˆ’$5MQ2 2026: $11M
Q4 2023: $11MQ1 2024: $21MQ2 2024: $27MQ3 2024: โˆ’$13MQ4 2024: โˆ’$802,091Q1 2025: $1MQ1 2025: --Q2 2025: $10MQ3 2025: $18MQ4 2025: $11MQ1 2026: โˆ’$5MQ2 2026: $11M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$10.9M+6.6%
Q1 2026-$5M-449%
Q4 2025$10.7M+$11.5M
Q3 2025$18.3M+$31.4M
Q2 2025$10.2M-63%
Q1 2025$1.4M-93%
Q4 2024-$802.1K-108%
Q3 2024-$13.1M-234%

VINP has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over VINP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

VINP Total Shares

Q4 2023: 54MQ1 2024: 53MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 55MQ4 2024: 64MQ1 2025: 64MQ2 2025: 66MQ3 2025: 63MQ1 2026: 65MQ2 2026: 68M
Q4 2023: 54MQ1 2024: 53MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 55MQ4 2024: 64MQ1 2025: 64MQ2 2025: 66MQ3 2025: 63MQ1 2026: 65MQ2 2026: 68M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+4.4%+2.9M shares
1 year+6.7%+4.3M shares
3 years+20%+11.6M shares
5 years+32%+16.7M shares
Available history+23%+12.8M shares

VINP has 68M diluted shares, up 6.7% from a year ago.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

VINP Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.5xQ1 2024: 2.2xQ2 2024: 2.8xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 3.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.4xQ2 2026: 1.2x
Q4 2023: 2.5xQ1 2024: 2.2xQ2 2024: 2.8xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 3.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.4xQ2 2026: 1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20261.2xHealthy
Q1 20261.4xHealthy
Q4 20251.3xHealthy
Q4 20243.3xElevated
Q3 20242.4xModerate
Q2 20242.8xModerate
Q1 20242.2xModerate
Q4 20232.5xModerate

VINP has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

VINP Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.1Neutral
Stochastic8.0Oversold

VINP's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

VINP PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricVINPSector medianRelative
PEN/A13xโ€”

VINP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS has the edge over VINP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

VINP Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$9.8711% below
20 week MA$9.749.5% below
50 week MA$10.718% below
100 week MA$10.516% below
200 week MA$10.314% below

VINP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 14% below its 200-week average.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over VINP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

VINP Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$17.1$11.2-34%
2022$11.2$8.37-25%
2023$8.37$11.0+31%
2024$11.0$10.0-8.5%
2025$10.0$13.1+31%
2026 YTD$13.1$8.81-33%

VINP has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 33% so far in 2026.

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