MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over USCB overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
USCB
USCB Financial Holdings, Inc.
USCB offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
USCB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
USCB's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like USCB.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
USCB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.8x | $20.13 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $18.10 | -10% |
| Fair | 13x | $20.88 | +3.7% |
| Current | 13x | $20.13 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $26.97 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
USCB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over USCB on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
USCB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect USCB's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over USCB on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
USCB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | +27% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.61 | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55 | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.46 | +5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.33 | +7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.58 | +52% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.48 | +68% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.39 | +78% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.24 | +48% |
USCB's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.61 over the past year, up 1.9% from the year before, and higher year over year for nine quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over USCB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
USCB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27M | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $27.9M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $26.2M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $18M | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $25M | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.4M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.8M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $23M | +46% |
USCB's revenue is growing: $27M last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 45% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | -21 points |
| Q3 2025 | 47% | +4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +4.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 44% | +10 points |
| Q4 2024 | 40% | +17 points |
USCB has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
USCB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $13.9M | -30% |
| Q2 2026 | $24.2M | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $15M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | -$10.1M | -$7M |
| Q3 2025 | $20M | +80% |
| Q2 2025 | $18M | +1% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.6M | +84% |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.1M | +$2.9M |
USCB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over USCB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
USCB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -88.3K shares |
| 1 year | +1.5% | +276K shares |
| 3 years | -5.9% | -1.2M shares |
USCB has 18M diluted shares, up 1.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $1M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $34.4M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $174,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
USCB spent $1M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 97% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
USCB Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
USCB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.9 | Oversold |
USCB's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
USCB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | USCB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 4% below |
| PE % | 43 | 66 | 23 pts below |
USCB has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
USCB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.2 | 4.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $21.7 | 7.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $20.1 | 0.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $18.7 | 7.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.6 | 29% above |
USCB has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 29% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
USCB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.8 | $14.6 | +35% |
| 2022 | $14.6 | $12.5 | -15% |
| 2023 | $12.5 | $12.3 | -1.7% |
| 2024 | $12.3 | $17.7 | +45% |
| 2025 | $17.7 | $18.7 | +5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $18.7 | $20.1 | +7.5% |
USCB has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.