MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over TSBK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
TSBK
Timberland Bancorp, Inc.
TSBK trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TSBK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TSBK's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TSBK.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
TSBK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.2x | $32.69 | -31% |
| Fair | 9.2x | $36.80 | -23% |
| Expensive | 10x | $41.53 | -13% |
| Current | 12x | $47.61 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSBK has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
TSBK Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for TSBK to show an outlook.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over TSBK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSBK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.99 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.91 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.86 | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.68 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.40 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.24 | +6.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.09 | -1.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.00 | -8.5% |
TSBK earned $3.99 per share over the past year, up 17% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over TSBK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TSBK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $21.8M | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $21.1M | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $21.7M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.5M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.5M | +9.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.9M | +9% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.7M | +4.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $19.5M | -1.4% |
TSBK's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $22M last quarter, up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 44% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 42% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 48% | +3.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 46% | +5.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 43% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 43% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 44% | +1.9 points |
| Q3 2024 | 41% | -1.1 points |
TSBK has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TSBK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $7.8M | -25% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2M | -49% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.6M | +$9.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $9.5M | +50% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.2M | +237% |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.6M | -178% |
| Q3 2024 | $6.3M | -14% |
| Q4 2023 | $4.6M | -51% |
TSBK has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over TSBK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
TSBK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -66.8K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -66.4K shares |
| 3 years | -4.4% | -359K shares |
| 5 years | -7.2% | -610K shares |
| Available history | -7.2% | -613K shares |
TSBK has 8M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago, with $9M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $884,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $1.2M |
TSBK spent $9M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 78% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TSBK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
TSBK has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TSBK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.8 | Neutral |
TSBK's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
TSBK PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TSBK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 8.4% below |
| PE % | 98 | 63 | 35 pts above |
TSBK has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
TSBK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $46.3 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $45.7 | 4.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $41.7 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $36.6 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $32.6 | 46% above |
TSBK has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
TSBK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.8 | $24.6 | -18% |
| 2021 | $24.6 | $27.7 | +13% |
| 2022 | $27.7 | $33.1 | +19% |
| 2023 | $33.1 | $31.5 | -5% |
| 2024 | $31.5 | $30.5 | -3% |
| 2025 | $30.5 | $35.8 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $35.8 | $47.6 | +33% |
TSBK has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.