MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TREE
LendingTree, Inc.
TREE has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TREE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TREE's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TREE.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over TREE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TREE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.3x | $23.41 | -34% |
| Current | 5x | $35.31 | — |
| Forward | 5.5x | $35.31 | — |
| Fair | 26x | $184 | +421% |
| Expensive | 157x | $1,107 | +3035% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TREE's PE is in its cheap range at 5.0x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 5.5x.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over TREE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
TREE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TREE, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
TREE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.42 | -9.1% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.07 | +607% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.95 | +$17.02 |
| Q1 2026 | $12.92 | +$17.06 |
| Q4 2025 | $10.78 | +$13.92 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.00 | +$3.74 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.07 | +$5.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.14 | +$6.28 |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.14 | +$6.32 |
TREE's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $7.07 over the past year, about seven times what it earned the year before, and higher year over year for 12 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over TREE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TREE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $343.6M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $313.4M | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $327.3M | +37% |
| Q4 2025 | $319.7M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $307.8M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $250.1M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $239.7M | +43% |
| Q4 2024 | $261.5M | +95% |
TREE has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -20% | -30 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.5% | +13 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7% | +0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3% | +5.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.4% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3% | -7.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.9% | +7 points |
TREE's operating margin was −20% last quarter, down 30 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TREE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $32.8M | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $26M | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.8M | +$12.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $13.5M | +0.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.6M | -40% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.2M | +$32.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.6M | -222% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.4M | -27% |
TREE has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over TREE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
TREE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -14K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +52K shares |
| 3 years | +8.1% | +1M shares |
| 5 years | +5.8% | +772K shares |
| Available history | -4% | -579K shares |
TREE has 14M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $43M |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS has the edge over TREE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TREE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 7.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.8x | High |
TREE's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.2 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like TREE.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TREE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.8 | Neutral |
TREE's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
TREE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TREE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5x | 13x | 62% below |
| PE % | 25 | 63 | 38 pts below |
TREE has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over TREE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TREE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.4 | 25% above |
| 20 week MA | $32.0 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $40.1 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $44.5 | 21% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.1 | 9.7% below |
TREE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 9.7% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over TREE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TREE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $294.4 | $277.5 | -5.8% |
| 2021 | $277.5 | $125.9 | -55% |
| 2022 | $125.9 | $18.9 | -85% |
| 2023 | $18.9 | $30.3 | +60% |
| 2024 | $30.3 | $39.3 | +29% |
| 2025 | $39.3 | $54.4 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $54.4 | $35.3 | -35% |
TREE has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 35% so far in 2026.