MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 16% and earnings per share grew 29%. At 15x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

TCPC

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.

There isn't enough reported data to score TCPC yet.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

TCPC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
N/A
N/A

TCPC's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TCPC.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189โ€”
Current15x$189โ€”
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

TCPC PE Valuation

TCPC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over TCPC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

TCPC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong decline
Strong decline
Strongly weakening
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect TCPC's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and TCPC's risk to reward.

TCPC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $4.11 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and TCPC's risk to reward.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the edge over TCPC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

TCPC Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.67Q1 2024: $0.36Q2 2024: $-0.52Q3 2024: $-0.49Q4 2024: $-0.79Q1 2025: $-0.62Q2 2025: $-0.21Q3 2025: $-0.17Q4 2025: $-1.05Q1 2026: $-1.49Q2 2026: $-1.28Q3 2026: $-2.37Forward: $0.32
Q4 2023: $0.67Q1 2024: $0.36Q2 2024: $-0.52Q3 2024: $-0.49Q4 2024: $-0.79Q1 2025: $-0.62Q2 2025: $-0.21Q3 2025: $-0.17Q4 2025: $-1.05Q1 2026: $-1.49Q2 2026: $-1.28Q3 2026: $-2.37Forward: $0.32
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$0.32โ€”
Q3 2026-$2.37-$2.20
Q2 2026-$1.28-$1.07
Q1 2026-$1.49-$0.87
Q4 2025-$1.05-$0.26
Q3 2025-$0.17+$0.32
Q2 2025-$0.21+$0.31
Q1 2025-$0.62-272%
Q4 2024-$0.79-218%

TCPC lost $2.37 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 12% for MS versus up 5.5% for TCPC.

TCPC Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2022$44M+5.5%
Q1 2022$42.2M+2.4%
Q4 2021$39.6M-7.7%
Q3 2021$42.7M-0.3%
Q2 2021$41.6M-7.7%
Q1 2021$41.2M-0.2%
Q4 2020$42.9M-10%

TCPC's revenue has held roughly level: $44M last quarter, up 5.5% from the same quarter a year ago.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was โˆ’$58.3B over the past year, against โˆ’$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

TCPC Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: $33MQ2 2024: $86MQ3 2024: $102MQ4 2024: $72MQ1 2025: $53MQ2 2025: โˆ’$42MQ3 2025: $104MQ4 2025: $41MQ1 2026: $159MQ2 2026: $96MQ3 2026: $292M
Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: $33MQ2 2024: $86MQ3 2024: $102MQ4 2024: $72MQ1 2025: $53MQ2 2025: โˆ’$42MQ3 2025: $104MQ4 2025: $41MQ1 2026: $159MQ2 2026: $96MQ3 2026: $292M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$291.9M+181%
Q2 2026$96.3M+$138.2M
Q1 2026$159.1M+203%
Q4 2025$40.5M-43%
Q3 2025$103.7M+2.1%
Q2 2025-$41.9M-148%
Q1 2025$52.5M+57%
Q4 2024$71.7M+78%

TCPC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over TCPC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

TCPC Total Shares

Q4 2023: 58MQ1 2024: 62MQ2 2024: 86MQ3 2024: 86MQ4 2024: 80MQ1 2025: 85MQ2 2025: 85MQ3 2025: 85MQ4 2025: 85MQ1 2026: 84MQ2 2026: 84MQ3 2026: 84M
Q4 2023: 58MQ1 2024: 62MQ2 2024: 86MQ3 2024: 86MQ4 2024: 80MQ1 2025: 85MQ2 2025: 85MQ3 2025: 85MQ4 2025: 85MQ1 2026: 84MQ2 2026: 84MQ3 2026: 84M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-12.6K shares
1 year-1.3%-1.1M shares
3 years+45%+26.1M shares
5 years+45%+26.1M shares
Available history+43%+25.2M shares

TCPC has 84M diluted shares, down 1.3% from a year ago, with $5M in buybacks over the past year.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

TCPC Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 202210.7xHigh
Q1 202210.8xHigh
Q4 202117.2xHigh
Q3 202110.8xHigh
Q2 202111.0xHigh
Q1 202110.6xHigh
Q4 20206.7xHigh
Q3 20209.5xHigh

TCPC's net debt is about 11 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 11 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like TCPC.

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

TCPC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI51.2Neutral
Stochastic79.0Neutral

TCPC's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

TCPC PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricTCPCSector medianRelative
PEN/A13xโ€”

TCPC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS has the edge over TCPC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

TCPC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$4.100.2% above
20 week MA$3.885.9% above
50 week MA$4.232.8% below
100 week MA$5.8330% below
200 week MA$8.2950% below

TCPC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 50% below its 200-week average.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over TCPC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

TCPC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$14.1$11.3-20%
2021$11.3$13.5+20%
2022$13.5$13.0-3.8%
2023$13.0$11.5-11%
2024$11.5$8.56-26%
2025$8.56$5.44-36%
2026 YTD$5.44$4.11-24%

TCPC has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 24% so far in 2026.

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