MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TCBS
Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.
TCBS has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TCBS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TCBS's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TCBS.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
TCBS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 15x | $17.30 | — |
| Cheap | 16x | $18.97 | +9.7% |
| Fair | 24x | $27.51 | +59% |
| Expensive | 79x | $91.78 | +431% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TCBS has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
TCBS Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for TCBS to show an outlook.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over TCBS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TCBS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.16 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.21 | +55% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | +63% |
| Q4 2023 | -$0.24 | -141% |
| Q3 2023 | $0.00 | -100% |
| Q2 2023 | $0.03 | -90% |
| Q1 2023 | $0.12 | -43% |
TCBS earned $1.16 per share over the past year, up 36% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over TCBS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over TCBS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TCBS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4M | -9.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.4M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.1M | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.4M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.4M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.8M | +4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.9M | +16% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.7M | +8.9% |
TCBS's revenue is growing: $4M last quarter, down 9.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | +3.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | +1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +27 points |
TCBS's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TCBS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1M | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $786K | -4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | -$178K | +$1.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $160K | +$247K |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6M | +81% |
| Q2 2025 | $822K | +215% |
| Q4 2024 | -$87K | +$1.8M |
| Q3 2024 | $858K | +97% |
TCBS has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
TCBS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -18K shares |
| 1 year | -4.9% | -141K shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -407K shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -533K shares |
TCBS has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $816,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $846,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $495,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $576,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $418,000 |
| Q2 2024 | $430,000 |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TCBS Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TCBS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 32.1 | Neutral |
TCBS's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 32 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
TCBS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TCBS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 8 | 66 | 58 pts below |
TCBS has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
TCBS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $17.1 | 1% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.4 | 0.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $17.2 | 0.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.6 | 4.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% above |
TCBS has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over TCBS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TCBS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $15.1 | $15.5 | +2.8% |
| 2022 | $15.5 | $15.1 | -2.5% |
| 2023 | $15.1 | $14.1 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $14.1 | $15.1 | +6.9% |
| 2025 | $15.1 | $17.6 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.6 | $17.3 | -1.7% |
TCBS has finished higher in three of the last five years. It's down 1.7% so far in 2026.