MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over TCBK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
TCBK
TriCo Bancshares
TCBK offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TCBK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TCBK's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TCBK.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
TCBK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $43.55 | -16% |
| Fair | 12x | $53.64 | +4% |
| Current | 12x | $51.58 | — |
| Forward | 12x | $51.58 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $60.04 | +16% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TCBK has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over TCBK on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
TCBK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TCBK, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over TCBK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TCBK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.44 | +3.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.30 | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.16 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.94 | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.70 | +6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.56 | +6% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.40 | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.43 | +4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.46 | -1.7% |
TCBK earned $4.30 per share over the past year, up 21% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over TCBK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TCBK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116.7M | +8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $111.9M | +8% |
| Q1 2026 | $108.3M | +9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $109.4M | +9% |
| Q3 2025 | $107.6M | +8.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $103.6M | +5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $98.6M | +0.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.4M | -2.2% |
TCBK's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $117M last quarter, up 8.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 45% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 41% | +4.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 42% | +6.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 43% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 37% | -3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 36% | -2.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 39% | +3.3 points |
TCBK has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TCBK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $39.1M | -9.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.2M | -18% |
| Q1 2026 | $33M | +45% |
| Q4 2025 | $33.7M | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $43.2M | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $28.2M | -8.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.8M | -5.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.9M | -35% |
TCBK has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
TCBK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +11K shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -605K shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -1.2M shares |
| 5 years | +7.6% | +2.3M shares |
| Available history | +4.8% | +1.5M shares |
TCBK has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $15.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9M |
TCBK spent $34M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TCBK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
TCBK has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TCBK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.0 | Neutral |
TCBK's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
TCBK PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TCBK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 7.8% below |
| PE % | 40 | 63 | 23 pts below |
TCBK has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
TCBK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $52.2 | 1.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $54.4 | 5.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $51.5 | 0.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $46.9 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $43.1 | 20% above |
TCBK has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 20% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
TCBK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $40.8 | $34.5 | -15% |
| 2021 | $34.5 | $42.0 | +22% |
| 2022 | $42.0 | $50.5 | +20% |
| 2023 | $50.5 | $43.0 | -15% |
| 2024 | $43.0 | $44.0 | +2.5% |
| 2025 | $44.0 | $48.3 | +9.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $48.3 | $51.6 | +6.8% |
TCBK has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.