MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SPNT
SiriusPoint Ltd.
SPNT has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SPNT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SPNT's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SPNT.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over SPNT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SPNT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.5x | $14.23 | -47% |
| Current | 6.6x | $26.81 | — |
| Fair | 7.8x | $31.56 | +18% |
| Forward | 9.9x | $26.81 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $78.26 | +192% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SPNT's PE is in its fair range at 6.6x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.9x.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over SPNT on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
SPNT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect SPNT's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
SPNT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.72 | -33% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.06 | +143% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.05 | +318% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.97 | +282% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.64 | +250% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.67 | +6.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.97 | -48% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.04 | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.04 | -47% |
SPNT earned $4.06 per share over the past year, up 143% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over SPNT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over SPNT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SPNT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $867.6M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $744.1M | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $774.6M | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $973.7M | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $755.9M | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $748.2M | +0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $727.3M | +6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $612.8M | -5.1% |
SPNT's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $868M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +5.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | +31 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 10% | -7.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -5.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2.1% | -1.8 points |
SPNT's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SPNT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $170M | +9.3% |
| Q2 2026 | -$5.2M | -108% |
| Q1 2026 | $141.9M | +$230.8M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.4M | -125% |
| Q3 2025 | $155.6M | +168% |
| Q2 2025 | $62.1M | +$209M |
| Q1 2025 | -$88.9M | -259% |
| Q4 2024 | $107.7M | -50% |
SPNT has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over SPNT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
SPNT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.6% | -1.8M shares |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -1.7M shares |
| 3 years | -30% | -51.3M shares |
| 5 years | -27% | -43.1M shares |
| Available history | +26% | +24.5M shares |
SPNT has 117M diluted shares, down 1.4% from a year ago, with $101M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $51.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $21.9M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $490.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $170M |
SPNT spent $101M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 85% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SPNT Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SPNT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.7 | Overbought |
SPNT's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SPNT PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SPNT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.6x | 13x | 49% below |
| PE % | 38 | 63 | 25 pts below |
SPNT has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
SPNT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $25.6 | 4.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $24.8 | 8.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $23.0 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $20.3 | 32% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.8 | 70% above |
SPNT has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
SPNT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.5 | $9.26 | -12% |
| 2021 | $9.26 | $8.25 | -11% |
| 2022 | $8.25 | $6.25 | -24% |
| 2023 | $6.25 | $11.6 | +86% |
| 2024 | $11.6 | $14.2 | +23% |
| 2025 | $14.2 | $22.3 | +57% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.3 | $26.8 | +20% |
SPNT has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.