MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over SPFI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
SPFI
South Plains Financial, Inc.
SPFI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SPFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SPFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SPFI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
SPFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $27.16 | -37% |
| Fair | 8.5x | $31.98 | -25% |
| Forward | 10x | $42.80 | — |
| Current | 11x | $42.80 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $45.37 | +6% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SPFI has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over SPFI on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
SPFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SPFI, with profitability holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over SPFI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SPFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.08 | +8.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.77 | +7.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.67 | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.57 | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.44 | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.50 | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.20 | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.00 | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.92 | -19% |
SPFI earned $3.77 per share over the past year, up 7.7% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over SPFI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SPFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65.3M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $64.5M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $54.1M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $53.9M | +3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.2M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $54.7M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $49.2M | +5.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $51.9M | +17% |
SPFI's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $65M last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 38% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 35% | -4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 38% | +8.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 34% | +4.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 40% | +10 points |
SPFI has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SPFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $30.5M | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.8M | +106% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.8M | -41% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.4M | +262% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.5M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $13M | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $25M | +34% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1M | -52% |
SPFI has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over SPFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
SPFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -208K shares |
| 1 year | +15% | +2.6M shares |
| 3 years | +13% | +2.2M shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +1.1M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +2.6M shares |
SPFI has 20M diluted shares, up 15% from a year ago, despite $13M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $12.8M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $276,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $8.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
SPFI spent $13M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 51% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SPFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -8.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -7.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -5.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -6.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
SPFI has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SPFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 45.1 | Neutral |
SPFI's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SPFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SPFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 13% below |
| PE % | 71 | 63 | 8 pts above |
SPFI has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
SPFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $42.3 | 1.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $39.3 | 9% above |
| 200 week MA | $33.5 | 28% above |
SPFI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 28% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
SPFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.0 | $18.9 | -9.8% |
| 2021 | $18.9 | $26.9 | +42% |
| 2022 | $26.9 | $28.3 | +5.1% |
| 2023 | $28.3 | $29.0 | +2.5% |
| 2024 | $29.0 | $35.0 | +21% |
| 2025 | $35.0 | $39.6 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.6 | $42.8 | +8.2% |
SPFI has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.