MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 16% and earnings per share grew 29%. At 15x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

SAR

Saratoga Investment Corp.

There isn't enough reported data to score SAR yet.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

SAR Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Stable
N/A
N/A

SAR's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SAR.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189โ€”
Current15x$189โ€”
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

SAR PE Valuation

SAR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over SAR on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.

SAR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Decline
Growth
Strongly weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect SAR's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and SAR's risk to reward.

SAR Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $11.65 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and SAR's risk to reward.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the edge over SAR on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

SAR Earnings Per Share

Q1 2024: $0.71Q2 2024: $1.21Q3 2024: $1.53Q4 2024: $2.48Q1 2025: $2.02Q2 2025: $2.45Q3 2025: $2.32Q4 2025: $2.42Q1 2026: $2.31Q2 2026: $0.98Q3 2026: $-0.27Forward: $2.02
Q1 2024: $0.71Q2 2024: $1.21Q3 2024: $1.53Q4 2024: $2.48Q1 2025: $2.02Q2 2025: $2.45Q3 2025: $2.32Q4 2025: $2.42Q1 2026: $2.31Q2 2026: $0.98Q3 2026: $-0.27Forward: $2.02
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.02โ€”
Q3 2026-$0.27-112%
Q2 2026$0.98-60%
Q1 2026$2.31+14%
Q4 2025$2.42-2.4%
Q3 2025$2.32+52%
Q2 2025$2.45+102%
Q1 2025$2.02+185%
Q4 2022$1.17-72%

SAR has swung to a loss: it lost $0.27 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 12% for MS versus down 35% for SAR.

SAR Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2022$11.8M-35%
Q2 2022$7.6M-72%
Q1 2022$16.6M+0.8%
Q4 2021$15M-4%
Q3 2021$18.3M-31%
Q1 2021$16.5M-50%

SAR's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $12M last quarter, down 35% from the same quarter a year ago.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS has the edge over SAR on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

SAR Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$19MQ1 2024: โˆ’$21MQ2 2024: $52MQ3 2024: $71MQ4 2024: $94MQ1 2025: โˆ’$20MQ2 2025: $32MQ3 2025: โˆ’$19MQ4 2025: โˆ’$9MQ1 2026: โˆ’$92MQ2 2026: โˆ’$26MQ3 2026: โˆ’$28M
Q4 2023: โˆ’$19MQ1 2024: โˆ’$21MQ2 2024: $52MQ3 2024: $71MQ4 2024: $94MQ1 2025: โˆ’$20MQ2 2025: $32MQ3 2025: โˆ’$19MQ4 2025: โˆ’$9MQ1 2026: โˆ’$92MQ2 2026: โˆ’$26MQ3 2026: โˆ’$28M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$27.8M-$8.5M
Q2 2026-$26M-180%
Q1 2026-$92.4M-$72.5M
Q4 2025-$8.6M-109%
Q3 2025-$19.3M-127%
Q2 2025$32.3M-38%
Q1 2025-$19.9M+$741.4K
Q4 2024$94.2M+$112.7M

SAR's free cash flow was โˆ’$155M over the past year, against $87M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SAR.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over SAR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

SAR Total Shares

Q4 2023: 13MQ1 2024: 13MQ2 2024: 14MQ3 2024: 14MQ4 2024: 14MQ1 2025: 14MQ2 2025: 15MQ3 2025: 16MQ4 2025: 16MQ1 2026: 16MQ2 2026: 16MQ3 2026: 16M
Q4 2023: 13MQ1 2024: 13MQ2 2024: 14MQ3 2024: 14MQ4 2024: 14MQ1 2025: 14MQ2 2025: 15MQ3 2025: 16MQ4 2025: 16MQ1 2026: 16MQ2 2026: 16MQ3 2026: 16M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.6%-97.3K shares
1 year+2.4%+380K shares
3 years+33%+4M shares
5 years+45%+5M shares
Available history+44%+5M shares

SAR has 16M diluted shares, up 2.4% from a year ago.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

SAR Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 202235.8xHigh
Q2 202220.9xHigh
Q1 20229.3xHigh
Q4 20216.6xHigh
Q3 20216.6xHigh
Q2 20215.8xHigh
Q1 20203.2xElevated

SAR's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.6 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SAR.

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

SAR Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI19.3Oversold
Stochastic3.6Oversold

SAR's weekly RSI is 19 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 4 (oversold).

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS has the edge over SAR on valuation relative to its sector.

SAR PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricSARSector medianRelative
PE17x13x29% above
PE %776314 pts above

SAR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS has the edge over SAR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

SAR Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$14.519% below
20 week MA$17.132% below
50 week MA$20.543% below
100 week MA$22.448% below
200 week MA$23.550% below

SAR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 50% below its 200-week average.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over SAR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

SAR Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$25.0$20.7-17%
2021$20.7$29.3+42%
2022$29.3$25.6-13%
2023$25.6$25.9+1.1%
2024$25.9$23.8-8.1%
2025$23.8$23.2-2.5%
2026 YTD$23.2$11.7-50%

SAR has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 50% so far in 2026.

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