MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over SAN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
SAN
Banco Santander, S.A.
SAN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SAN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SAN's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SAN.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
SAN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.8x | $6.79 | -44% |
| Fair | 6.9x | $8.02 | -34% |
| Expensive | 11x | $12.46 | +2.7% |
| Current | 11x | $12.13 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SAN has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
SAN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SAN, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over SAN on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
SAN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.16 | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.14 | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.12 | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.96 | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.91 | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.92 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.90 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.86 | +18% |
SAN's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.16 over the past year, up 27% from the year before, and higher year over year for 22 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over SAN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over SAN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SAN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $36.4B | +170% |
| Q2 2026 | $37.2B | +134% |
| Q1 2026 | $33B | -6% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.6B | -5.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.4B | -19% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.9B | -7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.1B | -6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.6B | +9.8% |
SAN's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $36.4B last quarter, up 170% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | -18 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -16 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 33% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | -1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 29% | +1.9 points |
SAN's operating margin was 15% last quarter, down 18 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
SAN has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is down 186% versus its history, compared with MS at down 492%.
SAN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -$21.9B | +$416.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | -100% |
| Q3 2025 | -$11.1B | -186% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.6B | +$38.8B |
| Q1 2025 | -$22.3B | +$32.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $23B | +370% |
| Q3 2024 | $12.9B | +101% |
| Q2 2024 | -$17.1B | -1043% |
SAN's free cash flow was −$11.3B over the past year, against −$3.6B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SAN.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over SAN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
SAN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +15% | +2.2B shares |
| 1 year | +6.2% | +990M shares |
| 3 years | +6.1% | +977M shares |
| 5 years | -9.7% | -1.8B shares |
| Available history | -6.8% | -1.2B shares |
SAN has 16.9B diluted shares, up 6.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $560.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q1 2025 | $954.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B |
| Q3 2024 | $658.8M |
| Q2 2024 | $1.4B |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS has the edge over SAN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SAN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 14.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 13.8x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 14.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 11.9x | High |
SAN's net debt is about 15 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SAN.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SAN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.4 | Oversold |
SAN's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SAN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SAN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 19% below |
| PE % | 81 | 63 | 18 pts above |
SAN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over SAN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SAN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.8 | 5.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.7 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.7 | 4.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $10.3 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $7.25 | 67% above |
SAN has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 67% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over SAN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SAN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $3.96 | $3.19 | -19% |
| 2021 | $3.19 | $3.26 | +2.2% |
| 2022 | $3.26 | $2.94 | -9.8% |
| 2023 | $2.94 | $4.14 | +41% |
| 2024 | $4.14 | $4.49 | +8.5% |
| 2025 | $4.49 | $11.8 | +163% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.8 | $12.1 | +2.7% |
SAN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 2.7% so far in 2026.