MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 16% and earnings per share grew 29%. At 15x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

RYAN

Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.

There isn't enough reported data to score RYAN yet.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

RYAN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Unavailable
Stable
N/A
N/A

RYAN's profitability is currently stable. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like RYAN.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189โ€”
Current15x$189โ€”
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

RYAN PE Valuation

RYAN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.

RYAN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Growth
Growth
Improving
Moderate
High

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for RYAN, with profitability improving.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and RYAN's risk to reward.

RYAN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $46.15 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and RYAN's risk to reward.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 29% for MS versus RYAN down 71%.

RYAN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.69Q1 2024: $0.46Q2 2024: $0.37Q3 2024: $0.51Q4 2024: $0.38Q1 2025: $0.10Q2 2025: $0.12Q3 2025: $0.13Q4 2025: $0.11Forward: $2.35
Q4 2023: $0.69Q1 2024: $0.46Q2 2024: $0.37Q3 2024: $0.51Q4 2024: $0.38Q1 2025: $0.10Q2 2025: $0.12Q3 2025: $0.13Q4 2025: $0.11Forward: $2.35
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.35+2037%
Q4 2025$0.11-71%
Q3 2025$0.13-75%
Q2 2025$0.12-68%
Q1 2025$0.10-78%
Q4 2024$0.38-45%
Q3 2024$0.51-24%
Q2 2024$0.37-55%
Q1 2024$0.46-41%

RYAN's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.11 over the past year, against $0.82 in mid-2023.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

RYAN has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 12% for MS versus up 14% for RYAN.

RYAN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $533MQ1 2024: $552MQ2 2024: $695MQ3 2024: $605MQ4 2024: $664MQ1 2025: $690MQ2 2025: $855MQ3 2025: $755MQ4 2025: $751MQ1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: $790M
Q4 2023: $533MQ1 2024: $552MQ2 2024: $695MQ3 2024: $605MQ4 2024: $664MQ1 2025: $690MQ2 2025: $855MQ3 2025: $755MQ4 2025: $751MQ1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: $790M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$790M+4.7%
Q4 2025$751.2M+13%
Q3 2025$754.6M+25%
Q2 2025$855.2M+23%
Q1 2025$690.2M+25%
Q4 2024$663.5M+25%
Q3 2024$604.7M+20%
Q2 2024$695.4M+19%

RYAN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $790M last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

RYAN has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 176% versus its history, compared with MS at down 492%.

RYAN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $213MQ1 2024: โˆ’$124MQ2 2024: $256MQ3 2024: $94MQ4 2024: $242MQ1 2025: โˆ’$160MQ2 2025: $334MQ3 2025: $156MQ4 2025: $246MQ1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: $181M
Q4 2023: $213MQ1 2024: โˆ’$124MQ2 2024: $256MQ3 2024: $94MQ4 2024: $242MQ1 2025: โˆ’$160MQ2 2025: $334MQ3 2025: $156MQ4 2025: $246MQ1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: $181M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$181.3M+17%
Q4 2025$246M+1.5%
Q3 2025$155.5M+66%
Q2 2025$333.8M+30%
Q1 2025-$159.6M-$35.4M
Q4 2024$242.3M+14%
Q3 2024$93.8M-1.1%
Q2 2024$255.9M-15%

RYAN's free cash flow was $917M over the past year, up 112% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like RYAN.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over RYAN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

RYAN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 121MQ1 2024: 270MQ2 2024: 271MQ3 2024: 273MQ4 2024: 277MQ1 2025: 126MQ2 2025: 274MQ3 2025: 273MQ4 2025: 279MQ3 2026: 252M
Q4 2023: 121MQ1 2024: 270MQ2 2024: 271MQ3 2024: 273MQ4 2024: 277MQ1 2025: 126MQ2 2025: 274MQ3 2025: 273MQ4 2025: 279MQ3 2026: 252M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-9.7%-26.9M shares
1 year+100%+126M shares
3 years+127%+141M shares
5 years+136%+145M shares

RYAN has 252M diluted shares, up 100% from a year ago.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

RYAN Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 3.1xQ2 2024: 2.9xQ3 2024: 4.9xQ4 2024: 4.9xQ1 2025: 5.5xQ2 2025: 4.8xQ3 2025: 4.2xQ4 2025: 4.2x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 3.1xQ2 2024: 2.9xQ3 2024: 4.9xQ4 2024: 4.9xQ1 2025: 5.5xQ2 2025: 4.8xQ3 2025: 4.2xQ4 2025: 4.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q4 20254.2xHigh
Q3 20254.2xHigh
Q2 20254.8xHigh
Q1 20255.5xHigh
Q4 20244.9xHigh
Q3 20244.9xHigh
Q2 20242.9xModerate
Q1 20243.1xElevated

RYAN's net debt is about 4.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.9 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like RYAN.

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

RYAN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI59.4Neutral
Stochastic78.4Neutral

RYAN's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

RYAN PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricRYANSector medianRelative
PEN/A13xโ€”

RYAN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.

RYAN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$41.810% above
20 week MA$41.910% above
50 week MA$41.012% above
100 week MA$52.312% below
200 week MA$51.711% below

RYAN has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 11% below its 200-week average.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over RYAN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

RYAN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$28.6$39.3+38%
2022$39.3$40.6+3.1%
2023$40.6$43.0+6.1%
2024$43.0$64.0+49%
2025$64.0$51.8-19%
2026 YTD$51.8$46.2-11%

RYAN has finished higher in four of the last five years. It's down 11% so far in 2026.

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