MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over RDN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
RDN
Radian Group Inc.
RDN trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
RDN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
RDN's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like RDN.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over RDN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
RDN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.7x | $23.35 | -36% |
| Forward | 7.1x | $36.75 | — |
| Fair | 8.1x | $33.18 | -9.7% |
| Current | 9x | $36.75 | — |
| Expensive | 9.2x | $37.34 | +1.6% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RDN's PE is in its expensive range at 9.0x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.1x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over RDN on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
RDN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for RDN, but weaker profitability.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over RDN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RDN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.16 | +26% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.08 | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | -1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.06 | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.15 | +5.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.00 | +3.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.96 | +3.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.92 | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.92 | +4% |
RDN earned $4.08 per share over the past year, up 2% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over RDN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
RDN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $624.1M | +106% |
| Q2 2026 | $575M | +81% |
| Q1 2026 | $466.3M | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $300.5M | -4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $303.2M | -9.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $318M | -1% |
| Q1 2025 | $318.1M | -0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $315.9M | -3.1% |
RDN's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $624M last quarter, up 106% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 37% | -29 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | -29 points |
| Q1 2026 | 37% | -22 points |
| Q4 2025 | 67% | +7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 66% | +7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 55% | -3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 59% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 60% | +4.7 points |
RDN has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
RDN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $379M | +6% |
| Q2 2026 | $342.7M | +$1.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $284.3M | +327% |
| Q4 2025 | $406.1M | +$675.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $357.6M | +$595.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$714.6M | -$506.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $66.6M | +35% |
| Q3 2024 | -$238.1M | -417% |
RDN has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
RDN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -1.9M shares |
| 1 year | -2.6% | -3.5M shares |
| 3 years | -16% | -25.8M shares |
| 5 years | -29% | -53.7M shares |
| Available history | -34% | -70.8M shares |
RDN has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $125.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $80.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $223M |
| Q1 2025 | $208.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $76M |
RDN spent $256M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 50% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
RDN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2019 | 0.9x | Very low |
RDN's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like RDN.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
RDN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.6 | Neutral |
RDN's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 61 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
RDN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | RDN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9x | 13x | 31% below |
| PE % | 79 | 63 | 16 pts above |
RDN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
RDN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.7 | 5.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $36.2 | 1.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $35.3 | 4.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $34.5 | 6.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $31.6 | 16% above |
RDN has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over RDN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RDN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $25.3 | $20.0 | -21% |
| 2021 | $20.0 | $20.5 | +2.6% |
| 2022 | $20.5 | $19.1 | -7.1% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $28.6 | +50% |
| 2024 | $28.6 | $31.8 | +11% |
| 2025 | $31.8 | $36.4 | +15% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.4 | $36.8 | +0.9% |
RDN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 0.9% so far in 2026.