MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over PROV overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
PROV
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.
PROV has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
PROV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PROV's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PROV.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
PROV PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $11.99 | -34% |
| Forward | 13x | $18.24 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $15.03 | -18% |
| Expensive | 18x | $18.75 | +2.8% |
| Current | 18x | $18.24 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PROV has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over PROV on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
PROV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect PROV's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over PROV on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PROV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.35 | +32% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.03 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.03 | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.99 | +8.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.90 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.93 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.97 | -4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.91 | -19% |
PROV earned $1.03 per share over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over PROV on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over PROV on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PROV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10.6M | +8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.6M | +8.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.9M | -2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.8M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.7M | +2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.8M | -1.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.1M | +7.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.6M | -0.5% |
PROV's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $11M last quarter, up 8.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | -7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 28% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -6.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 24% | -4.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | -19 points |
PROV's operating margin was 21% last quarter, down 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
PROV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3M | +74% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3M | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7M | -47% |
| Q4 2025 | $1M | +236% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2M | +$3M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.3M | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $307K | +$749K |
PROV has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
PROV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.9% | -189K shares |
| 1 year | -5% | -332K shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -733K shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -1.3M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -1.4M shares |
PROV has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $801,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $1M |
PROV spent $7M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 64% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
PROV Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -4.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
PROV has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
PROV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 64.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 45.7 | Neutral |
PROV's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 46 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over PROV on valuation relative to its sector.
PROV PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PROV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 13x | 36% above |
| PE % | 79 | 63 | 16 pts above |
PROV is trading at 18x earnings, a 36% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
PROV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.2 | 0% above |
| 20 week MA | $18.0 | 1.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $17.1 | 6.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.2 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.9 | 23% above |
PROV has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
PROV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.0 | $15.8 | -28% |
| 2021 | $15.8 | $16.7 | +5.7% |
| 2022 | $16.7 | $13.8 | -17% |
| 2023 | $13.8 | $12.6 | -8.4% |
| 2024 | $12.6 | $15.9 | +26% |
| 2025 | $15.9 | $16.1 | +1.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.1 | $18.2 | +13% |
PROV has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.