MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over PAX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
PAX
Patria Investments Limited
PAX offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
PAX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PAX's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PAX.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
PAX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 6.9x | $9.18 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $7.80 | -15% |
| Current | 20x | $9.18 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $10.23 | +11% |
| Expensive | 29x | $12.85 | +40% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAX has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over PAX on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
PAX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect PAX's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over PAX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PAX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.33 | +196% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.45 | -18% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.47 | 0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54 | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.69 | +60% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.55 | +1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.47 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.49 | -38% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.43 | -46% |
PAX's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.45 over the past year, against $0.95 in mid-2021.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over PAX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PAX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $111.3M | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $98.2M | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.4M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $86.5M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $82.5M | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $79.6M | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $157.2M | +41% |
| Q3 2024 | $78.1M | +23% |
PAX's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $111M last quarter, up 35% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -18 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -14 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 37% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 37% | -10 points |
| Q4 2024 | 51% | +1.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 36% | -12 points |
PAX's operating margin was 19% last quarter, down 18 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
PAX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $35.5M | -51% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.4M | -71% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.3M | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $52.1M | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $72.9M | +879% |
| Q1 2025 | $97.8M | +144% |
| Q4 2024 | $23.1M | -29% |
| Q3 2024 | $67M | +75% |
PAX has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over PAX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
PAX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +953K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +1.5M shares |
| 3 years | +7.7% | +11.4M shares |
| 5 years | +19% | +25.6M shares |
| Available history | +36% | +42.6M shares |
PAX has 160M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago, despite $69M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $12.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $56.2M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
PAX spent $69M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
PAX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
PAX has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
PAX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.1 | Oversold |
PAX's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over PAX on valuation relative to its sector.
PAX PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PAX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 13x | 57% above |
| PE % | 40 | 62 | 22 pts below |
PAX is trading at 20x earnings, a 57% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over PAX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PAX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.4 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.8 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.4 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.6 | 27% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.2 | 31% below |
PAX is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 31% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over PAX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PAX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $19.9 | $16.5 | -17% |
| 2022 | $16.5 | $13.7 | -17% |
| 2023 | $13.7 | $15.5 | +13% |
| 2024 | $15.5 | $11.6 | -25% |
| 2025 | $11.6 | $16.2 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.2 | $9.18 | -43% |
PAX has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 43% so far in 2026.