MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over OTF overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
OTF
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.
OTF trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
OTF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Unavailable | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
OTF's profitability is currently stable. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like OTF.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
OTF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7x | $5.86 | -38% |
| Forward | 7.2x | $9.46 | — |
| Fair | 8.9x | $7.48 | -21% |
| Current | 11x | $9.46 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $9.77 | +3.3% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OTF has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over OTF on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
OTF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for OTF, but weaker profitability.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over OTF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
OTF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.32 | +57% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.84 | -51% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.86 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.96 | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.76 | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.73 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.80 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.41 | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.52 | -16% |
OTF's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.84 over the past year, against $1.80 in late 2023.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
OTF Quarterly Revenue
OTF and MS do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OTF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $181.6M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | -$316.7M | +$93.5M |
| Q1 2026 | -$197.3M | -136% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -846% |
| Q3 2025 | $158.7M | +$312.3M |
| Q2 2025 | -$410.2M | -$387.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $542.2M | +586% |
| Q4 2024 | $161.7M | -36% |
OTF's free cash flow was −$1.5B over the past year, against $452M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like OTF.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
OTF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -4.7M shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -10.5M shares |
| 3 years | +122% | +251M shares |
OTF has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $55.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $55.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $64.6M |
OTF spent $225M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OTF Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
OTF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.0 | Neutral |
OTF's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
OTF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | OTF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 13% below |
| PE % | 75 | 12 | 63 pts above |
OTF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has stronger trend alignment. MS is above 3 of 5 weekly averages versus OTF above 0 of 3.
OTF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.50 | 0.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.3 | 7.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $11.4 | 17% below |
OTF is in a downtrend: it's below all three of its weekly moving averages, and 17% below its 50-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over OTF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
OTF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $16.0 | $14.1 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.1 | $9.46 | -33% |
OTF has finished every year since 2025 lower, and it's down 33% so far in 2026.