MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over OSBC overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
OSBC
Old Second Bancorp, Inc.
OSBC offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
OSBC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
OSBC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like OSBC.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
OSBC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $15.56 | -38% |
| Fair | 9.8x | $20.78 | -17% |
| Forward | 11x | $25.11 | — |
| Current | 12x | $25.11 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $30.07 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OSBC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over OSBC on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
OSBC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect OSBC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over OSBC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
OSBC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.32 | +10% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.11 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.73 | -5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.67 | -8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.62 | -13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.51 | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.83 | -3.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.83 | -7.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.87 | -7.4% |
OSBC earned $2.11 per share over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
OSBC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $97.1M | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $96.6M | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | $93.8M | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $95.2M | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $95.9M | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $75.1M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $73.1M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $73.2M | +4.6% |
OSBC has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | +26 points |
| Q2 2026 | 39% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 41% | +6.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -28 points |
| Q2 2025 | 39% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 36% | -4.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 35% | -1 points |
OSBC has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OSBC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $64.2M | +85% |
| Q2 2026 | $27.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.2M | +123% |
| Q4 2025 | $43.4M | +98% |
| Q3 2025 | $34.7M | -25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.5M | +167% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.2M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.8M | -12% |
OSBC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
OSBC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -975K shares |
| 1 year | -4.4% | -2.4M shares |
| 3 years | +13% | +5.7M shares |
| 5 years | +74% | +21.8M shares |
| Available history | +68% | +20.7M shares |
OSBC has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $39.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $15.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $24.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $36,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $5.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $62,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $257,000 |
OSBC spent $80M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OSBC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
OSBC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
OSBC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 38.5 | Neutral |
OSBC's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 39 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
OSBC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | OSBC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 8.6% below |
| PE % | 71 | 63 | 8 pts above |
OSBC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
OSBC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $24.7 | 1.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $24.8 | 1.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.3 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $19.9 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $17.4 | 45% above |
OSBC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
OSBC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.5 | $9.97 | -26% |
| 2021 | $9.97 | $12.6 | +27% |
| 2022 | $12.6 | $16.6 | +31% |
| 2023 | $16.6 | $15.4 | -7% |
| 2024 | $15.4 | $17.8 | +16% |
| 2025 | $17.8 | $19.9 | +12% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.9 | $25.1 | +26% |
OSBC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.