MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over OBDC overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
OBDC
Blue Owl Capital Corporation
OBDC trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
OBDC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
OBDC's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like OBDC.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over OBDC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
OBDC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.8x | $5.31 | -51% |
| Forward | 8.2x | $10.90 | — |
| Fair | 9.4x | $6.39 | -41% |
| Expensive | 16x | $11.04 | +1.3% |
| Current | 16x | $10.90 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OBDC's PE is in its expensive range at 16x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 8.2x, in its cheap range.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over OBDC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
OBDC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect OBDC's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over OBDC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
OBDC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.34 | +96% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.68 | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.56 | -63% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70 | -55% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.41 | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.51 | -16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.55 | -22% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.53 | -25% |
OBDC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.68 over the past year, against $2.22 in early 2021.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 12% for MS versus down 81% for OBDC.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
OBDC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $39.8M | -81% |
| Q1 2022 | $112.4M | -48% |
| Q4 2021 | $241.8M | +6% |
| Q3 2021 | $212.7M | -2% |
| Q2 2021 | $212.4M | -31% |
| Q4 2020 | $228M | +64% |
OBDC's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $40M last quarter, down 81% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | -84% | -155 points |
| Q1 2022 | 40% | -35 points |
| Q4 2021 | 72% | -9.2 points |
| Q3 2021 | 70% | -29 points |
| Q2 2021 | 72% | -27 points |
| Q1 2021 | 75% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 82% | -19 points |
| Q3 2020 | 99% | N/A |
OBDC's operating margin was −84% last quarter, down 155 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OBDC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $62.6M | +$193.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $547.3M | -46% |
| Q1 2026 | $967.4M | +2384% |
| Q4 2025 | $822.9M | +85% |
| Q3 2025 | -$131M | -$127.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +$1.7B |
| Q1 2025 | $38.9M | -91% |
| Q4 2024 | $446M | +7.8% |
OBDC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
OBDC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -3.1M shares |
| 1 year | -3.7% | -18.8M shares |
| 3 years | +26% | +102M shares |
| 5 years | +26% | +100M shares |
| Available history | +26% | +103M shares |
OBDC has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $35.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $35.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $35.2M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OBDC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 19.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 12.8x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 10.3x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 9.5x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 8.1x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 6.1x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 12.6x | High |
| Q3 2020 | 11.8x | High |
OBDC's net debt is about 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 8.1 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like OBDC.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
OBDC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 42.9 | Neutral |
OBDC's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 43 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over OBDC on valuation relative to its sector.
OBDC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | OBDC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 13x | 23% above |
| PE % | 82 | 63 | 19 pts above |
OBDC is trading at 16x earnings, a 23% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over OBDC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
OBDC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.5 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.9 | 0.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.3 | 3.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.8 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.6 | 20% below |
OBDC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 20% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over OBDC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
OBDC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.1 | $13.0 | -32% |
| 2021 | $13.0 | $14.4 | +11% |
| 2022 | $14.4 | $11.9 | -18% |
| 2023 | $11.9 | $14.8 | +24% |
| 2024 | $14.8 | $15.5 | +4.8% |
| 2025 | $15.5 | $12.7 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $12.7 | $10.9 | -14% |
OBDC has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 14% so far in 2026.