MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NWBI
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.
NWBI has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NWBI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NWBI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NWBI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NWBI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $14.43 | -4.7% |
| Current | 11x | $15.13 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $15.13 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $18.28 | +21% |
| Expensive | 17x | $22.33 | +48% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NWBI has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
NWBI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NWBI, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over NWBI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NWBI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.43 | +6.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.34 | +52% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.02 | -8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.92 | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.88 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.12 | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.90 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.79 | -25% |
NWBI earned $1.34 per share over the past year, up 52% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NWBI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $184.9M | +9.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $181.2M | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $175.1M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $179.9M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $168.2M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $150.4M | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.2M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $154.3M | +14% |
NWBI has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 36% | +34 points |
| Q2 2026 | 39% | +9.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 38% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 33% | +5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.1% | -29 points |
| Q2 2025 | 29% | +23 points |
| Q1 2025 | 36% | +7.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +0.3 points |
NWBI has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NWBI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.9M | -51% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.1M | +$32.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $69.6M | -34% |
| Q3 2025 | $38.3M | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | -$6M | -115% |
| Q1 2025 | $105.8M | +50% |
| Q3 2024 | $93.3M | +$98.3M |
| Q2 2024 | $40.7M | +77% |
NWBI has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NWBI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NWBI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +122K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +481K shares |
| 3 years | +15% | +19.5M shares |
| 5 years | +15% | +19.6M shares |
| Available history | +38% | +40.7M shares |
NWBI has 147M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | $18.8M |
| Q2 2021 | $465,000 |
| Q1 2021 | $4.6M |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NWBI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
NWBI has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NWBI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 43.8 | Neutral |
NWBI's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NWBI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NWBI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 13% below |
| PE % | 31 | 63 | 32 pts below |
NWBI has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
NWBI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.2 | 0.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.3 | 1.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $14.0 | 8% above |
| 100 week MA | $13.2 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $12.6 | 20% above |
NWBI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 20% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
NWBI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.6 | $12.6 | -24% |
| 2021 | $12.6 | $14.0 | +12% |
| 2022 | $14.0 | $14.0 | +0.2% |
| 2023 | $14.0 | $12.5 | -11% |
| 2024 | $12.5 | $13.3 | +6.2% |
| 2025 | $13.3 | $12.3 | -7.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $12.3 | $15.1 | +24% |
NWBI has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.