MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NU
Nu Holdings Ltd.
NU has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NU Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NU's revenue and profitability are currently strong. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NU.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NU PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 11x | $11.83 | — |
| Current | 16x | $11.83 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $17.04 | +44% |
| Fair | 33x | $24.31 | +106% |
| Expensive | 125x | $92.38 | +681% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NU has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
NU Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NU, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
NU Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.06 | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.74 | +61% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.65 | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.58 | +45% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.51 | +42% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.46 | +48% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +65% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.40 | +90% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.36 | +350% |
NU has the edge over MS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over NU on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NU Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $5.5B | +50% |
| Q1 2026 | $5B | +53% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.2B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.7B | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.2B | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.9B | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.9B | +34% |
NU has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 22% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -5.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -3.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 27% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 24% | -2.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +2.5 points |
| Q3 2024 | 25% | +6.1 points |
NU's operating margin was 22% last quarter, down 1.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS has the edge over NU on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NU Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$2.9B | -218% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.3B | -229% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.1B | +$8.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B | -6.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $1B | +$1.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -52% |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.1B | +$2.2B |
NU's free cash flow was −$4.2B over the past year, against $3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NU.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NU on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NU Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -5.4M shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +5.1M shares |
| 3 years | +1.3% | +61M shares |
| 5 years | +6.4% | +296M shares |
| Available history | +6.4% | +296M shares |
NU has 4.9B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $500.4M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NU spent $500M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NU Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 5.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
NU has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NU Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 10.5 | Oversold |
NU's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 11 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over NU on valuation relative to its sector.
NU PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NU | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 13x | 23% above |
| PE % | 1 | 63 | 62 pts below |
NU is trading at 16x earnings, a 23% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over NU on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NU Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.5 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $14.0 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $14.6 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.8 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $11.7 | 1.5% above |
NU has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 1.5% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over NU on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NU Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $11.9 | $9.83 | -17% |
| 2022 | $9.83 | $3.89 | -60% |
| 2023 | $3.89 | $8.33 | +114% |
| 2024 | $8.33 | $10.3 | +24% |
| 2025 | $10.3 | $16.8 | +62% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.8 | $11.8 | -29% |
NU's yearly returns have swung widely, from +114% in 2023 to −60% in 2022. It's down 29% so far in 2026.