MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 16% and earnings per share grew 29%. At 15x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

NMFC

New Mountain Finance Corporation

There isn't enough reported data to score NMFC yet.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

NMFC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Stable
N/A
N/A

NMFC's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NMFC.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189โ€”
Current15x$189โ€”
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

NMFC PE Valuation

NMFC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over NMFC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

NMFC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Decline
Decline
Weakening
Limited
High

Analysts expect NMFC's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and NMFC's risk to reward.

NMFC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $6.67 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare MS and NMFC's risk to reward.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the edge over NMFC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

NMFC Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.24Q1 2024: $1.10Q2 2024: $1.09Q3 2024: $1.04Q4 2024: $1.03Q1 2025: $0.99Q2 2025: $0.75Q3 2025: $0.64Q4 2025: $0.16Q1 2026: $-0.57Q2 2026: $-0.46Q3 2026: $-0.53Forward: $1.03
Q4 2023: $1.24Q1 2024: $1.10Q2 2024: $1.09Q3 2024: $1.04Q4 2024: $1.03Q1 2025: $0.99Q2 2025: $0.75Q3 2025: $0.64Q4 2025: $0.16Q1 2026: $-0.57Q2 2026: $-0.46Q3 2026: $-0.53Forward: $1.03
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.03โ€”
Q3 2026-$0.53-183%
Q2 2026-$0.46-161%
Q1 2026-$0.57-158%
Q4 2025$0.16-84%
Q3 2025$0.64-38%
Q2 2025$0.75-31%
Q1 2025$0.99-10%
Q4 2024$1.03-17%

NMFC has swung to a loss: it lost $0.53 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 12% for MS versus down 61% for NMFC.

NMFC Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2022$37M-61%
Q1 2022$57.1M-18%
Q4 2021$71.9M+4.3%
Q3 2021$39.3M-40%
Q2 2021$95.5M+54%
Q1 2021$70M-5.6%
Q4 2020$68.9M-6.5%

NMFC's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $37M last quarter, down 61% from the same quarter a year ago.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
Q4 2023: โˆ’$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: โˆ’$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: โˆ’$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: โˆ’$3.3BQ4 2025: โˆ’$2.4BQ1 2026: โˆ’$7.1BQ2 2026: โˆ’$2.7BQ3 2026: โˆ’$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was โˆ’$58.3B over the past year, against โˆ’$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

NMFC Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $126MQ1 2024: $68MQ2 2024: โˆ’$160MQ3 2024: โˆ’$62MQ4 2024: $195MQ1 2025: $104MQ2 2025: $40MQ3 2025: $73MQ4 2025: $162MQ1 2026: $401MQ2 2026: $24MQ3 2026: $39M
Q4 2023: $126MQ1 2024: $68MQ2 2024: โˆ’$160MQ3 2024: โˆ’$62MQ4 2024: $195MQ1 2025: $104MQ2 2025: $40MQ3 2025: $73MQ4 2025: $162MQ1 2026: $401MQ2 2026: $24MQ3 2026: $39M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$39.4M-46%
Q2 2026$24.4M-39%
Q1 2026$401.4M+286%
Q4 2025$161.6M-17%
Q3 2025$73.1M+$134.7M
Q2 2025$40.3M+$200.2M
Q1 2025$103.9M+52%
Q4 2024$195.2M+55%

NMFC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.

NMFC Total Shares

Q4 2023: 123MQ2 2024: 126MQ3 2024: 127MQ4 2024: 125MQ1 2025: 127MQ2 2025: 127MQ3 2025: 125MQ4 2025: 121MQ1 2026: 100MQ2 2026: 95MQ3 2026: 94M
Q4 2023: 123MQ2 2024: 126MQ3 2024: 127MQ4 2024: 125MQ1 2025: 127MQ2 2025: 127MQ3 2025: 125MQ4 2025: 121MQ1 2026: 100MQ2 2026: 95MQ3 2026: 94M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.1%-98.6K shares
1 year-24%-30.6M shares
3 years-26%-32.6M shares
5 years-14%-15.6M shares
Available history-10%-10.8M shares

NMFC has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

NMFC Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 202215.2xHigh
Q1 20229.9xHigh
Q4 20218.9xHigh
Q3 20217.8xHigh
Q2 20216.2xHigh
Q1 20216.0xHigh
Q4 202028.3xHigh
Q3 2020116.3xHigh

NMFC's net debt is about 15 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.2 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NMFC.

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

NMFC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI37.0Neutral
Stochastic28.1Neutral

NMFC's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 28 (neutral).

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

NMFC PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricNMFCSector medianRelative
PEN/A13xโ€”

NMFC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS has the edge over NMFC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

NMFC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$6.832.3% below
20 week MA$7.106.1% below
50 week MA$7.8315% below
100 week MA$9.1727% below
200 week MA$10.838% below

NMFC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 38% below its 200-week average.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over NMFC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

NMFC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$13.8$11.3-18%
2021$11.3$13.6+20%
2022$13.6$12.3-9.1%
2023$12.3$12.7+3.1%
2024$12.7$11.2-12%
2025$11.2$9.17-18%
2026 YTD$9.17$6.67-27%

NMFC has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 27% so far in 2026.

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