MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKSH
National Bankshares, Inc.
NKSH has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NKSH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NKSH's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NKSH.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NKSH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.6x | $32.39 | -18% |
| Forward | 10x | $39.59 | — |
| Current | 12x | $39.59 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $42.43 | +7.2% |
| Expensive | 17x | $56.42 | +42% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKSH has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
NKSH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NKSH, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
NKSH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.85 | +15% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.36 | +63% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.19 | +78% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.76 | +100% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.49 | +101% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.06 | +42% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.79 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.38 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.24 | -53% |
NKSH earned $3.36 per share over the past year, up 63% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKSH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.4M | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.7M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.3M | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.3M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.2M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.3M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.8M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.2M | +14% |
NKSH has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | +3.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 39% | +19 points |
| Q1 2026 | 40% | +9.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +17 points |
| Q3 2025 | 38% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | +24 points |
| Q1 2025 | 30% | +4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | -17 points |
NKSH has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NKSH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.1M | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3M | +118% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1M | +92% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.7M | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5M | +$4.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6M | -58% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.9M | -173% |
| Q1 2024 | $3.8M | -11% |
NKSH has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NKSH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NKSH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1.3K shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +5.1K shares |
| 3 years | +8.1% | +479K shares |
| 5 years | +3.7% | +226K shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -212K shares |
NKSH has 6M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $2.6M |
| Q3 2022 | $796,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $1.4M |
| Q1 2022 | $1.5M |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NKSH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -6.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -10.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -10.5x | Net Cash |
NKSH has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NKSH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.9 | Oversold |
NKSH's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NKSH PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NKSH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 9.5% below |
| PE % | 42 | 63 | 21 pts below |
NKSH has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
NKSH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $41.3 | 4.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $40.6 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $37.7 | 5% above |
| 100 week MA | $32.9 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $31.8 | 25% above |
NKSH has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 25% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
NKSH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $46.1 | $31.7 | -31% |
| 2021 | $31.7 | $35.6 | +12% |
| 2022 | $35.6 | $39.8 | +12% |
| 2023 | $39.8 | $32.4 | -19% |
| 2024 | $32.4 | $28.4 | -12% |
| 2025 | $28.4 | $33.9 | +19% |
| 2026 YTD | $33.9 | $39.6 | +17% |
NKSH has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.