MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over NEWT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NEWT
NewtekOne, Inc.
NEWT offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NEWT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NEWT's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NEWT.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NEWT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 5.2x | $10.44 | — |
| Cheap | 5.5x | $10.25 | -1.8% |
| Current | 5.6x | $10.44 | — |
| Fair | 7.1x | $13.41 | +28% |
| Expensive | 10x | $19.07 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NEWT has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over NEWT on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NEWT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NEWT's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over NEWT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NEWT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.02 | +7.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.88 | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.21 | +9.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.26 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.18 | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.24 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.02 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.93 | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.96 | +27% |
NEWT earned $1.88 per share over the past year, down 16% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over NEWT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NEWT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $71.8M | -4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $75.1M | +7% |
| Q1 2026 | $71M | +7% |
| Q4 2025 | $73.3M | -2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $74.9M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $70.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $66.3M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $75.4M | +42% |
NEWT's revenue has held roughly level: $72M last quarter, down 4.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS has the edge over NEWT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NEWT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$152.4M | +$14.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$163.3M | +$36.6M |
| Q1 2026 | -$257.5M | -$196.8M |
| Q4 2025 | -$151.4M | -$59.8M |
| Q3 2025 | -$167.3M | -$141.4M |
| Q2 2025 | -$199.9M | -7108% |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.7M | -$22M |
| Q4 2024 | -$91.7M | -$39M |
NEWT's free cash flow was −$725M over the past year, against −$520M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NEWT.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NEWT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NEWT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +51K shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +2.7M shares |
| 3 years | +16% | +4M shares |
NEWT has 29M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $167,000 |
| Q3 2025 | — |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NEWT Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NEWT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 2.7 | Oversold |
NEWT's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NEWT PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NEWT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.6x | 13x | 57% below |
| PE % | 19 | 63 | 44 pts below |
NEWT has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over NEWT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NEWT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.0 | 4.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $12.4 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.6 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.0 | 19% below |
NEWT is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 19% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over NEWT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NEWT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.7 | $18.2 | -20% |
| 2021 | $18.2 | $27.9 | +54% |
| 2022 | $27.9 | $16.7 | -40% |
| 2023 | $16.7 | $13.8 | -17% |
| 2024 | $13.8 | $13.0 | -5.7% |
| 2025 | $13.0 | $11.5 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.5 | $10.4 | -9.1% |
NEWT has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 9.1% so far in 2026.