MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over MSDL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSDL
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
MSDL trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MSDL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MSDL's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSDL.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over MSDL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSDL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.4x | $13.83 | — |
| Cheap | 7.6x | $0.38 | -97% |
| Fair | 9x | $0.45 | -97% |
| Expensive | 15x | $0.76 | -94% |
| Current | 277x | $13.83 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSDL's PE is in its expensive range at 277x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.4x, in its cheap range.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over MSDL on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
MSDL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MSDL's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MSDL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSDL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.87 | +3650% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.05 | -97% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.69 | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.01 | -54% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.40 | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.65 | -35% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.93 | -35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.18 | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.43 | -22% |
MSDL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.05 over the past year, against $3.11 in late 2023.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MSDL has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 12% for MS versus up 26% for MSDL.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSDL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | $40.2M | +26% |
| Q3 2022 | $24.3M | -8.5% |
| Q2 2022 | $6.6M | -72% |
| Q1 2022 | $29.1M | +72% |
| Q4 2021 | $31.9M | +179% |
| Q3 2021 | $26.6M | +312% |
| Q2 2021 | $23.3M | +343% |
| Q1 2021 | $16.9M | +1731% |
MSDL's revenue has held roughly level: $40M last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 51% | -32 points |
| Q3 2022 | 39% | -45 points |
| Q2 2022 | -49% | -135 points |
| Q1 2022 | 76% | -11 points |
| Q4 2021 | 83% | -20 points |
| Q3 2021 | 84% | -34 points |
| Q2 2021 | 85% | -28 points |
| Q1 2021 | 87% | +440 points |
MSDL's operating margin was 51% last quarter, down 32 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MSDL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $128.7M | +230% |
| Q2 2026 | $103.8M | +332% |
| Q1 2026 | $86.3M | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | $53.8M | +$149.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $39M | +$156M |
| Q2 2025 | $24M | +$130.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $34.1M | +$87.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$96.2M | -519% |
MSDL has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
MSDL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -724K shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -2.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +12.2M shares |
| 5 years | -4.8% | -4.2M shares |
| Available history | +2618% | +80.9M shares |
MSDL has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $12.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $20.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $9.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $10.1M |
MSDL spent $49M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MSDL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 29.5x | High |
| Q3 2022 | 26.4x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 20.6x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 14.5x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 14.1x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 14.6x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 12.8x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 13.2x | High |
MSDL's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 14 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSDL.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MSDL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.8 | Neutral |
MSDL's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over MSDL on valuation relative to its sector.
MSDL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MSDL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 277x | 13x | 2,024% above |
| PE % | 100 | 36 | 64 pts above |
MSDL is trading at 277x earnings, a 2024% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has stronger trend alignment. MS is above 3 of 5 weekly averages versus MSDL above 1 of 4.
MSDL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.6 | 1.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.6 | 4.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.2 | 8.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.1 | 19% below |
MSDL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 19% below its 100-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over MSDL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSDL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $20.5 | $21.4 | +4.4% |
| 2025 | $21.4 | $17.0 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.0 | $13.8 | -19% |
MSDL has finished lower in one of the last two years. It's down 19% so far in 2026.