MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has the edge over MRK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
MRK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
MRK's cash flow is currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MRK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $14.38 | -90% |
| Forward | 17x | $147 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $20.03 | -86% |
| Expensive | 58x | $55.80 | -62% |
| Current | 151x | $147 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MRK's PE is in its expensive range at 151x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over MRK in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MRK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect MRK's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MRK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.42 | +768% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.97 | -87% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.25 | -81% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.55 | -48% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.28 | +8% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.58 | +59% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.50 | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.88 | +664% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.74 | +4714% |
MRK's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.97 over the past year, against $7.58 in late 2025.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over MRK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MRK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.1B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.6B | +5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.3B | +4.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.4B | +5% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.3B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.8B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.5B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.6B | +6.8% |
MRK's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $18.1B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 31% | -8.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | -4.1% | -36 points |
| Q1 2026 | -22% | -60 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -5.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +15 points |
| Q2 2025 | 32% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +41 points |
MRK's operating margin was 31% last quarter, down 8.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over MRK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over MRK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MRK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5B | +77% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +150% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | -27% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.8B | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B | -48% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | -47% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +$3.3B |
MRK generated $14.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 13% from the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over MRK on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MRK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +8M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -2.7% | -68M shares |
| 5 years | -2.3% | -58M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -226M shares |
MRK has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $653M |
| Q2 2026 | $757M |
| Q1 2026 | $874M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $489M |
MRK spent $3.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 18% from the year before.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
MRK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
MRK's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over MRK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MRK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.3 | Neutral |
MRK's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
MRK PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MRK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 151x | 26x | 486% above |
| PE % | 98 | 29 | 69 pts above |
MRK is trading at 151x earnings, a 486% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over MRK on valuation relative to its sector.
MRK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $146.6 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $141.1 | 4.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $125.2 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $105.9 | 39% above |
| 200 week MA | $109.8 | 34% above |
MRK has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
MRK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $87.3 | $76.4 | -12% |
| 2021 | $76.4 | $75.7 | -0.9% |
| 2022 | $75.7 | $111.9 | +48% |
| 2023 | $111.9 | $109.0 | -2.5% |
| 2024 | $109.0 | $99.7 | -8.5% |
| 2025 | $99.7 | $106.8 | +7.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $106.8 | $147.0 | +38% |
MRK has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.