MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
MPC's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 31% and its operating margin rose 7 points to 13%. At 8.1x earnings, it's trading right at its usual valuation. Analysts expect that strong growth to continue, though they disagree widely on how much.
MPC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MPC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MPC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5x | $257 | -38% |
| Forward | 5.7x | $413 | — |
| Fair | 8.1x | $412 | -0.1% |
| Current | 8.1x | $413 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $868 | +110% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MPC's PE is in its fair range at 8.1x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 5.7x next year's earnings.
MPC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MPC, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MPC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $72.55 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $51.04 | +436% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.96 | +320% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.19 | +109% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.22 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.53 | -25% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.89 | -64% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.26 | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.08 | -57% |
MPC's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $51.04 over the past year, up from $9.53 the year before.
MPC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $56B | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $52B | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.2B | +8.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.6B | -1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $34.8B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $33.8B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $31.5B | -3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $33.1B | -8.6% |
MPC's revenue is growing: $56B last quarter, up 61% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.1% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | +4.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.8% | +4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.5% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.2% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4% | -3.2 points |
MPC's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MPC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.6B | +478% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.1B | +370% |
| Q1 2026 | $208M | +$935M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +61% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | -29% |
| Q1 2025 | -$727M | -177% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +136% |
MPC generated $20.8B in free cash flow over the past year, about five times what it generated the year before.
MPC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.4% | -10M shares |
| 1 year | -7.9% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -29% | -116M shares |
| 5 years | -56% | -357M shares |
| Available history | -58% | -384M shares |
MPC has 280M diluted shares, down 7.9% from a year ago, with $7.3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $750M |
| Q4 2025 | $1B |
| Q3 2025 | $650M |
| Q2 2025 | $780M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B |
MPC spent $7.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 89% from the year before.
MPC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
MPC's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.0 years a year ago.
MPC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 58.0 | Neutral |
MPC's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
MPC PE vs Energy Sector
| Metric | MPC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.1x | 13x | 38% below |
| PE % | 49 | 61 | 12 pts below |
MPC is trading at 8.1x earnings, a 38% discount to the Energy sector's median of 13x.
MPC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $429.6 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $375.9 | 9.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $280.0 | 47% above |
| 100 week MA | $221.5 | 86% above |
| 200 week MA | $186.9 | 121% above |
MPC's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 121% above its 200-week average.
MPC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $60.4 | $41.2 | -32% |
| 2021 | $41.2 | $63.0 | +53% |
| 2022 | $63.0 | $115.1 | +83% |
| 2023 | $115.1 | $148.4 | +29% |
| 2024 | $148.4 | $135.7 | -8.6% |
| 2025 | $135.7 | $163.7 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $163.7 | $412.9 | +152% |
MPC has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 152% so far in 2026.