MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
MGY's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 26% and it turned 69% of its revenue into free cash flow. At 11x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 12x. Analysts expect that strong growth to continue, though they disagree widely on how much.
MGY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
MGY's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its balance sheet is stable.
MGY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.4x | $14.27 | -41% |
| Forward | 7.7x | $24.16 | — |
| Current | 11x | $24.16 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $26.36 | +9.1% |
| Expensive | 15x | $33.58 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MGY's PE is in its fair range at 11x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.7x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MGY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MGY, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MGY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.15 | +41% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.24 | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.29 | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73 | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.73 | -11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.80 | -10% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.92 | -5.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.02 | +1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.94 | -4.9% |
MGY's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.24 over the past year, against $4.71 in late 2022.
MGY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $513.9M | +58% |
| Q2 2026 | $478.8M | +50% |
| Q1 2026 | $358.5M | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $317.6M | -2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $324.9M | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $319M | -5.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $350.3M | +9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $326.6M | +1.2% |
MGY's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $514M last quarter, up 58% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 30% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 50% | +16 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | -8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | -7.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 34% | -6.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 39% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 38% | -4.8 points |
MGY's operating margin was 30% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MGY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $369M | +49% |
| Q2 2026 | $384M | +93% |
| Q1 2026 | $197.6M | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $208.4M | -6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $247.1M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $198.7M | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $224.5M | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $222.6M | -9.8% |
MGY's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $1.2B over the past year, up 30% from the year before.
MGY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +25% | +46.1M shares |
| 1 year | +25% | +45.9M shares |
| 3 years | +23% | +43.4M shares |
| 5 years | +31% | +55M shares |
| Available history | +38% | +63.6M shares |
MGY has 231M diluted shares, up 25% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $52.4M |
| Q1 2024 | $51.2M |
| Q3 2020 | $6.5M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | $6.5M |
MGY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
MGY's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
MGY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.6 | Neutral |
MGY's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
MGY PE vs Energy Sector
| Metric | MGY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 18% below |
| PE % | 37 | 61 | 24 pts below |
MGY is trading at 11x earnings, a 18% discount to the Energy sector's median of 13x.
MGY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $24.8 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $25.6 | 5.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $26.4 | 8.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $24.8 | 2.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $24.1 | 0.4% above |
MGY has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 0.4% above its 200-week average.
MGY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $12.6 | $7.36 | -42% |
| 2021 | $7.36 | $18.7 | +154% |
| 2022 | $18.7 | $24.1 | +29% |
| 2023 | $24.1 | $21.3 | -12% |
| 2024 | $21.3 | $23.0 | +7.9% |
| 2025 | $23.0 | $21.7 | -5.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.7 | $24.2 | +11% |
MGY's yearly returns have swung widely, from +154% in 2021 to −42% in 2020. It's up 11% so far in 2026.