META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
META has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
SPOT has the edge over META overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
META Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
META's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
SPOT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
SPOT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
META PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $624 | — |
| Cheap | 21x | $613 | -1.7% |
| Current | 21x | $624 | — |
| Fair | 27x | $803 | +29% |
| Expensive | 32x | $934 | +50% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
META's PE is in its cheap range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings.
SPOT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 40x | $577 | -3.6% |
| Current | 42x | $599 | — |
| Fair | 98x | $1,404 | +135% |
| Expensive | 144x | $2,066 | +245% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SPOT has the edge over META in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
META Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for META, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SPOT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
SPOT has the edge over META on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
META Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $32.16 | +9.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $29.32 | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.54 | -3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.50 | +7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $23.49 | -1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.58 | +6.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $27.56 | +41% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.58 | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $23.86 | +60% |
META earned $29.32 per share over the past year, up 30% from the year before.
SPOT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $14.36 | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.25 | +255% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.89 | +91% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.24 | +51% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.32 | +66% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.29 | +70% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.23 | +$6.75 |
| Q4 2024 | $6.12 | +$8.91 |
SPOT has the edge over META on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
META Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $64.6B | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $60.8B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.3B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $59.9B | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $51.2B | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $47.5B | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $42.3B | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.4B | +21% |
META has the edge over SPOT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -20 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | -12 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 41% | -7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 43% | +5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 48% | +7.4 points |
META has the edge over SPOT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SPOT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.3B | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $5B | +8.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $5B | +6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.7B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.7B | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.7B | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7B | +16% |
SPOT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $5.5B last quarter, up 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +4.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.7% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +7.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +13 points |
SPOT's operating margin was 14% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
META Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.2B | -110% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | -81% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.2B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $14.8B | +9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.2B | -32% |
| Q2 2025 | $9B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.1B | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.6B | +16% |
META usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$1.2B, but it generated $28.6B over the past year.
SPOT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $815.4M | -8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $884.3M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $923.2M | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $926.5M | -4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $895.4M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $776.5M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $592.1M | +159% |
| Q4 2024 | $974.3M | +121% |
SPOT has the edge over META on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
META Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +7M shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +1M shares |
| 3 years | -2.6% | -68M shares |
| 5 years | -10% | -286M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -303M shares |
META has 2.6B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $10.2B |
| Q1 2025 | $12.8B |
| Q4 2024 | — |
META hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
SPOT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -280K shares |
| 1 year | -2.4% | -5.2M shares |
| 3 years | +5.3% | +10.6M shares |
| 5 years | +7.5% | +14.5M shares |
| Available history | +14% | +25.6M shares |
SPOT has the edge over META on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $257.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $339.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $423.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $64.4M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $47.8M |
SPOT spent $1.4B buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
META Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
META's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
SPOT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
SPOT has the edge over META on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
META Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.7 | Neutral |
META's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
SPOT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.0 | Overbought |
SPOT's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
META PE vs Communication Services Sector
| Metric | META | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 16x | 29% above |
| PE % | 18 | 26 | 8 pts below |
META has the edge over SPOT on valuation relative to its sector.
SPOT PE vs Communication Services Sector
| Metric | SPOT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42x | 16x | 153% above |
| PE % | 23 | 26 | 3 pts below |
SPOT is trading at 42x earnings, a 153% premium to the Communication Services sector's median of 16x, though its earnings don't support one.
META Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $674.9 | 7.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $634.5 | 1.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $630.8 | 1.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $647.8 | 3.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $517.5 | 21% above |
META has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 21% above its 200-week average.
SPOT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $552.7 | 8.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $525.4 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $512.5 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $570.6 | 4.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $402.8 | 49% above |
SPOT has the edge over META on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
META Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $208.1 | $267.4 | +28% |
| 2021 | $267.4 | $335.2 | +25% |
| 2022 | $335.2 | $118.0 | -65% |
| 2023 | $118.0 | $354.0 | +200% |
| 2024 | $354.0 | $599.8 | +69% |
| 2025 | $599.8 | $663.3 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $663.3 | $623.6 | -6% |
META's yearly returns have swung widely, from +200% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's down 6% so far in 2026.
SPOT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $153.2 | $328.4 | +114% |
| 2021 | $328.4 | $236.6 | -28% |
| 2022 | $236.6 | $77.7 | -67% |
| 2023 | $77.7 | $187.9 | +142% |
| 2024 | $187.9 | $456.5 | +143% |
| 2025 | $456.5 | $584.4 | +28% |
| 2026 YTD | $584.4 | $598.5 | +2.4% |
SPOT has the edge over META on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.