MC
Moelis & Company
MC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over MC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
MC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MC's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $35.85 | -36% |
| Forward | 16x | $56.01 | — |
| Current | 19x | $56.01 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $60.15 | +7.4% |
| Expensive | 38x | $112 | +101% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MC's PE is in its fair range at 19x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over MC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MC, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
MC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.55 | +21% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.94 | -1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.87 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.78 | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.94 | +67% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.99 | +464% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.54 | +1593% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.18 | +$2.37 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.76 | +$2.12 |
MC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.94 over the past year, against $5.90 in late 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $409.4M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $319.8M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $487.9M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $356.9M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $365.4M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $306.6M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $438.7M | +104% |
| Q3 2024 | $273.8M | +0.6% |
MC has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | -3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +7.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +9.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +34 points |
| Q3 2024 | 5.7% | +13 points |
MC's operating margin was 18% last quarter, up 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over MC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250.2M | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $218M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | -$291.6M | -$123M |
| Q4 2025 | $329.6M | +5.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $179.6M | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $199.4M | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | -$168.6M | +$1.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $313M | +233% |
MC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.7% | -1.4M shares |
| 1 year | -1.3% | -994K shares |
| 3 years | +14% | +9.3M shares |
| 5 years | +14% | +9.8M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +21.7M shares |
MC has 78M diluted shares, down 1.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $23.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $117.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $46.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $15.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1M |
| Q3 2024 | $1M |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over MC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
MC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
MC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.3 | Neutral |
MC's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 30 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 13x | 46% above |
| PE % | 44 | 63 | 19 pts below |
MC is trading at 19x earnings, a 46% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over MC on valuation relative to its sector.
MC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.6 | 1% below |
| 20 week MA | $62.6 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $64.5 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $65.3 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $59.0 | 5.1% below |
MC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 5.1% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over MC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $32.8 | $47.2 | +44% |
| 2021 | $47.2 | $62.4 | +32% |
| 2022 | $62.4 | $39.0 | -37% |
| 2023 | $39.0 | $56.1 | +44% |
| 2024 | $56.1 | $74.5 | +33% |
| 2025 | $74.5 | $71.6 | -3.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $71.6 | $56.0 | -22% |
MC has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 22% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over MC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.